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Crash course: The college football midseason report
Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson is dominating the Heisman Trophy discussion this season. Doug Buffington/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Crash course: The college football midseason report

We are nearing the midpoint of the college football season. Leaves are changing color, pumpkin spice flavored everything is packing the supermarket, Halloween stores are popping up and college football is getting serious. Conference schedules are in full swing, there have been notable upsets and huge disappointments, yet there at the top are the teams that everyone thought would be there. We have half of a season left to go and so many important games to play. There is a Heisman race that, for now, seems like a runaway. Plus there are a few teams that may be in danger of missing a bowl.

So let's look ahead to see what the second half of the college football season has in store for us.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF PICTURE

As anyone who follows such things already knows, it is so difficult to nail down who will actually be in the playoff. There are so many games left, rivalries to get into and conference championship games to win. Still, there seems to be a notable path for a few teams that are able to control their own destiny.

Alabama is the top team in the land and will no doubt be in if they win out. They do have a tough schedule as you'd expect from an SEC school, but we're talking about a program that has been so dominant over the last decade. Clemson is in the same position. They've beaten Louisville already but still must travel to Florida State. Get through that and it should be an easy road to the ACC title game.

From there, we are thinking that the Michigan-Ohio State game could essentially be for a playoff spot. The fourth spot will be an interesting race between Houston, Washington and possibly Baylor or West Virginia. Houston beat Oklahoma which got our attention and has been dominating the AAC. They do have a home game against Louisville that a win would remind everyone why the Cougars should be in the playoff. They'll have a philosophic battle with Washington, who currently leads the Pac-12. Does Washington get ahead of Houston if they stay undefeated in a Power 5 conference or will Houston be perceived as the better team? 

Nebraska could figure in this as well if they can win out and upset the Michigan-Ohio State winner in the Big Ten title game. Same for Tennessee if they can beat Alabama... maybe twice. Louisville just lost to Clemson but still has a great shot to nab one of those playoff spots. So could several others if we start seeing a lot of one-loss teams out there. 

Right now? It would be Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson and Michigan.

TEN GAMES THAT WILL HELP GET US THERE

Not counting the conference championship games, here are ten contests that will go a long way to determining the national champion:

Michigan at Ohio State (11/26): One of the biggest rivalries in college sports may determine the national champion. They are both ranked in the top four and while both have some tough games to get through, this one will most likely determine the Big Ten East champion which would likely vaunt the winner into a playoff spot. If both wander into this game undefeated, both could end up contending for a championship.

Louisville at Houston (11/17): This is the game both need for a shot at the playoffs.  Since Louisville lost to Clemson, they have no room for error to get back into the playoff mix. As a non-Power 5 program, Houston doesn't get to lose and still possess a backdoor plan. A pre-Thanksgiving feast.

Clemson at Florida State (10/29): Before the season started, this was the big game in the ACC. Some felt that the loser of this one still could get in the playoff. It's a bit different now. Clemson is still undefeated but Florida State already has two losses. A Seminoles win would gum up the playoff picture quite a bit.

Texas A&M at Alabama (10/22): Alabama will play undefeated Tennessee the week prior to this, but the A&M game will be more important. The Tide could lose to Tennessee, win the SEC West, then beat the Vols in the SEC Championship game. But if Alabama loses to Texas A&M, that could put them out of the SEC title game and be in a very precarious situation for a playoff berth. In the two years of the playoff, all of the participants were conference champions. Under this scenario, Alabama wouldn't even be a division champ and maybe put them out of favor. An Aggies win puts them in the hunt.

Washington at Utah (10/29): The Huskies are back after destroying Stanford last week. Since Oregon is down this year, their meeting with Utah will be the biggest roadblock between Washington and a shot at a national championship. 

Baylor at Oklahoma (11/12): Baylor, for better or worse, leads the Big 12 and is probably their lone legit shot at a playoff spot. People are looking down on the Sooners, but they haven't lost a conference game and their two losses thus far are to current top five teams. This may be the first chance for us to see if the Bears are legit.

Alabama at Tennessee (10/15): As previously mentioned, Alabama could lose this one and still find a way into the playoffs. To be honest, Tennessee could say the same thing. The Vols could lose to the No. 1 team in the land, win out and then beat Alabama in a possible rematch in the SEC title game and get in.

Nebraska at Ohio State (11/5): Like Bama-Tennessee, this could be a preview of a possible conference championship game. Not many people are talking about Nebraska but this game (along with a battle at Wisconsin the prior week) will make us take the Huskers seriously. 

Baylor at West Virginia (12/3): As of now, both Baylor and West Virginia are undefeated. Neither have faced a formidable schedule but, hey, if these two keep it going then this game will pretty much be a Big 12 title game. 

North Carolina at Miami (10/15): These are the top two teams in the ACC Coastal Division and the division winner will get Clemson or Louisville in the conference championship game. Miami's undefeated season will be on the line in this four game stretch where they face Florida State, North Carolina, Virginia Tech and Notre Dame. This is the Tar Heels final major test in a season that is suddenly looking similar to last year. Whomever wins could make some waves if they can win out. 

HEISMAN WATCH

What seemed a bit wide open when the season started has really come down to just five names:

Lamar Jackson (Louisville): Jackson has owned this race, passing for over 1,600 yards, rushing for 688 yards and totaling 28 total touchdowns. Yes, Louisville lost to Clemson last week but Jackson still had a huge game in a huge atmosphere to stay on top. He has a sizable lead in this race, but so did LSU's Leonard Fournette at this point a year ago.

Deshaun Watson (Clemson): Watson also performed well in that game and crawled back near the top of the Heisman list. Stat-wise he hasn't performed as well as Jackson or Watson himself did a year ago, but he is back in that seat of the star quarterback for a team fighting for a national championship. 

Christian McCaffrey (Stanford): He was the clear No. 2 in this race but a mediocre game followed by an ugly performance against Washington has put him down on the list. He's only scored four touchdowns this season and needs a second half like last year to have a realistic shot at getting the Heisman.

J.T. Barrett (Ohio State): Barrett has been solid all year. His yardage isn't a wow statistic, but he's thrown for 14 touchdowns and ran in another three. Barrett is the quiet name in this race but he has a bunch of key games coming up to get his campaign in front of a lot of voters.

Greg Ward, Jr. (Houston): Ward's Heisman hopes have already taken their expected dip.  He's playing well and Houston is still on the national stage but he's had some issues. He's missed one game already, he's been banged up so he might get more rest than a typical Heisman quarterback and, aside from their game against Louisville late in the season, he won't be in front of voters like he already has been. Plus, Lamar Jackson is out Greg Ward-ing Greg Ward.

TEAMS WHO COULD BE IN SOME REAL TROUBLE

Remember when the season started and all these fan bases, boosters and alumni had this hope? Well there has been some hopes dashed already. Some of the top predictions are dealing with tough times while others are in jeopardy of missing out on a bowl game.

Florida State: They should be in a bowl game, but not one of the big ones that expected to be in when the season started. They are already 0-2 in ACC play and still have Miami and Clemson on tap. Add in their annual rivalry game with Florida and the Seminoles could have 4 or 5 losses when bowl bids are passed out.

Notre Dame: The Irish were thought to be challengers for a playoff spot and right off the bat that went out the window with a loss to Texas. Then at home to Michigan State. Then at home to Duke. Three losses already and games with Stanford, Miami and Virginia Tech looming (not to mention rivalry games with Navy and USC) and the Irish may not qualify for a bowl. 

Oregon: The Ducks have been one of the most impressive programs over the last decade but even they aren't immune to a bad season. Oregon sits at 2-3 and has Washington, Stanford and Utah left on their schedule. The Ducks' defense is so bad that I don't see them holding up against power offenses like Cal or Arizona State. 

Texas: The Longhorns are back! At least that's what some thought when Texas popped Notre Dame in overtime in Week 1. They've since lost two straight and the defense cannot stop anyone. The win over the Irish certainly doesn't look as impressive anymore and the Horns still have Oklahoma, Baylor, West Virginia and TCU left to play. When there are reports that head coach Charlie Strong won't be fired during the season means that it has been floated around campus. 

USC: The Trojans did rebound with an impressive win over Arizona State, but USC is still a 2-3 team trying to find its way. They still have to play at Washington before facing rivals UCLA and Notre Dame to end the season. That three game stretch to end the season could be the difference between bowl eligibility or sitting at home during the holiday season.

Duke: The Blue Devils went into South Bend and beat Notre Dame for one of the biggest wins in the program's history. They may also miss out on bowl season. They are 2-3 and just lost to lowly Virginia. They still have four ranked teams on their slate (Louisville, Virginia Tech, North Carolina and Miami) as well as roadies to Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh.

 

More must-reads:

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