2022 Oscar predictions: What will win vs. what should win

Will Win: The Power of the Dog   

Should Win: The Power of the Dog

Why? 

Jane Campion doesn't have one dog in this race; she has 12. The most nominated film of 2022 may be a slow-burn Western, but if any movie deserves to walk away with Best Picture, it's The Power of the Dog.

Will Win: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

Should Win: Campion

Why? 

No matter what happens in the Best Picture category, I still expect Campion to win the Oscar after collecting every major directing prize this season. It also happens she's been under a lot of scrutiny lately: that's just the thing to get Academy voters to rally behind her. One vote=one less hater. 

Will Win: Will Smith, King Richard

Should Win: Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

Why? 

The sports drama King Richard is peaking at just the right time, and the 53-year-old Will Smith delivers a titanic performance that will win over many voters. Still, Cumberbatch deserves the award, and it's easy to imagine us looking back on this category 20-years from now and thinking, "how the hell did Cumberbatch not win?" 

Will Win: Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Should Win: Kristen Stewart, Spencer

Why? 

Ummm, have you seen Spencer? Stewart is miles away from Twilight in this outstanding, out-of-this-world portrayal of Princess Diana. It's truly a great performance, but Chastain has something more powerful than acting on her side: she has makeup. Lots and lots of makeup. And if we've learned anything over the years, it's that makeup wins Oscars. 

Will Win: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

Should Win: DeBose

Why? 

Winning the SAG award should seal the deal for DeBose, who has been dancing her way from podium to podium all awards season. 

Will Win: Kodi Smit-Mcphee, The Power of the Dog

Should Win: Smit-Mcphee

Why? 

Right now the race for Best Supporting Actor is tighter than the race for NBA MVP. It could either go to Troy Kotsur, who won the SAG award for CODA, or McPhee, who has been the front-runner since Day 1. Both are more than worthy of an Oscar, but we're going with McPhee for his bone-chilling turn as Norman Bates 2.0. 

Will Win: Licorice Pizza

Should Win: Licorice Pizza

Why? 

Hollywood is obsessed with making movies about itself, but few are as stirring and funny as Paul Thomas Anderson's joy-ride through Los Angeles. Who wouldn't want to ride shotgun through a haze of sunshine and booze, pit stops and needledrops? I mean, come on... it's an absolute blast. 

Will Win: The Power of the Dog

Should Win: The Lost Daughter

Why? 

The Best Picture Winner almost always wins a screenplay award, so the safe bet here is The Power of the Dog . Still, I think Maggie Gyllenhaal should at least get a shoutout: The subtle way her screenplay keeps you off balance is almost impossible to describe. It's like an orange being peeled back to reveal juicy and colorful secrets. 

Will Win: Encanto

Should Win: The Mitchells vs. The Machines

Why? 

The Mitchells vs. Machines has lots of support in the industry, but Encanto has manged to clean up at all the awards shows. Just one more reason why awards shows are kinda lame. 

Will Win: Drive My Car

Should Win: Drive My Car

Why? 

It Checkhovs all the boxes: an art-house vibe, a huge following, and an adaptation of something no one has even heard of.

Will Win: Summer of Soul

Should Win: Summer of Soul

Why?

In a field mostly dominated by serious, socially conscious fare, Summer of Soul stands out like a catchy banger: It's about a concert in which everyone from Stevie Wonder to Gladys Knight to David Ruffin took the stage. It makes you want to dance, leap, hop and jump for joy. 

Will Win: Dune

Should Win Dune

Why? 

It's easy to watch something like Dune and focus on the effects or the production design, or even the performances. But keep an eye out for the way Greg Fraser's camera soars across the desert like a chopper, or tip-toes across tight, shadowy hallways like a spy. Most people don't notice this stuff; Academy voters do. 

Will Win: Dune

Should Win: Dune

Why? 

One thing you can't miss while watching Dune is Hans Zimmer's score. The main theme alone is worthy of an Oscar. 

Will Win: Dune

Should Win: Dune

Why? 

King Richard took this award at Ace Editing, which surprised me, given how subtle and natural its editing is: could voters really be moving away from splashier fare? Nah, it's probably just an aberration. The Oscar will go to Dune for its ambitious and stylized form. 

Will Win: Cruella

Should Win: Cruella

Why? 

The Costume winner is usually the period piece with the most color, which favors Cruella and its art-deco style. Should it triumph, the 71-year-old costume designer Jenny Beaven would take home her third trophy. 

Will Win: Dune

Should Win: Dune

Why? 

It's still outrageous that the year's best example of sound, David Lowery's The Green Knight, wasn't even nominated in this category. If it were up to me, The Green Knight would take home every Oscar...period. Among the movies that did get a nomination, though, Dune is definitely the standout. 

Will Win: No Time to Die

Should Win: Belfast

Why? 

Billie Eilish is good and all, but we're talking about Van Morrison here! Even mediocre Van is a million times better than peak-Eilish.