How do the 2019 Best Picture nominations compare to the past 20 years of Oscar history?

Winner: “Shakespeare in Love”

Nominees: “Elizabeth," “Life Is Beautiful," “Saving Private Ryan," “The Thin Red Line”

Only “Black Panther” can match the seismic cultural impact of “Saving Private Ryan," though the latter is, infuriating bookends aside, a far more masterfully crafted film. (This not a knock on Ryan Coogler, who’s still at the outset of what is shaping up to be a brilliant career.) “Saving Private Ryan," “The Thin Red Line” and “Shakespeare in Love” would knock out “Bohemian Rhapsody," “Green Book” and “Vice” and easily come out ahead of the rest save for “BlacKkKlansman," “Roma” and “The Favourite."

Winner: “The Thin Red Line”

Winner: “American Beauty”

Nominees: “The Cider House Rules," “The Green Mile," “The Insider," “The Sixth Sense”

The Academy was presented with the most exciting year in cinema since the 1970s and absolutely blew it with these nominations. Only “The Insider” belongs. The class of 2018 is deficient in its own ways (for starters, no female directed films), but most of these films at least reflect the turbulent zeitgeist. There are numerous 1999 movies (“Eyes Wide Shut," “Toy Story 2," “Topsy-Turvy” and “The Talented Mr. Ripley) that would beat out 2018’s best, but they’re not here. So…

Winner: “BlacKkKlansman”

Winner: “Gladiator”

Nominees: “Chocolat," “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon," “Erin Brockovich," “Traffic”

One of the fun parts of this exercise is attempting to determine whether “Bohemian Rhapsody” is the worst Best Picture nominee of the last 20 years. Lasse Hallström’s “What if ‘Footloose’ but chocolate” abomination gives it a vigorous tango, but Hallström at his most checked out could never make a film as technically inept at the one Bryan Singer kinda-sorta directed. The other four 2000 nominees are tip-top. “BlackKklansman” and “Roma” would elbow out “Chocolat” and “Erin Brockovich”. But they can’t top…

Winner: “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon”

Winner: “A Beautiful Mind”

Nominees: “Gosford Park," “In the Bedroom," “The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring," “Moulin Rouge!”

The Academy seriously nominated these movies over “Mulholland Dr.," “Black Hawk Down," “The Man Who Wasn’t There” and “Ghost World." The aftershock of 9/11 is only reflected by the inclusion of “The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring," which dangled a shred of hope with its ragtag group of adventurers on a quest to save civilization. Now, that was an encouraging thought. There’s not a lot of hope to be found in the 2018 group, and it’s telling that what hope it does muster up (via “Green Book”) is utterly false. Qualitywise, 2018 dusts this class overall. And yet... 

Winner: “The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring”

Winner: “Chicago”

Nominees: “Gangs of New York," “The Hours," “The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers," “The Pianist”

Yet another year where you’re wondering where the great movies are. Alas, there were no Oscar campaigns for “25^th Hour," “Morvern Callar” or “Femme Fatale." “The Pianist” and “The Two Towers” are worthy nominees, and “Gangs of New York” belongs for sheer ambition’s sake (and every minute featuring Daniel Day-Lewis and Brendan Gleeson). The other two films share the distinction of looking like “The Godfather” and “The Godfather Part II” in comparison to “Bohemian Rhapsody” and “Green Book." They look like just good movies in comparison to “Vice." “The Pianist," however, falls a little short of “Roma” and…

Winner: “BlacKkKlansman”

Winner: “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King”

Nominees: “Lost in Translation," “Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World," “Mystic River," “Seabiscuit” 

According to Gregg Turkington, the final film of every franchise always wins Best Picture. History was on his side for once in 2003 when “The Lord of the Rings” fulfilled its Oscar destiny – even though, as a standalone film, we’ll take Peter Weir’s seafaring epic “Master and Commander” (which failed to launch the franchise fans of Patrick O’Brian’s series had dreamed of for years). Otherwise, this is a pretty ho-hum group of movies. Sofia Coppola’s been getting better with each film, yet people still hold up “Lost in Translation” as her masterpiece. They should stop doing this. Time to flip a coin.

Winner: “BlacKkKlansman”

Winner: “Million Dollar Baby”

Nominees: “The Aviator," “Finding Neverland," “Ray," “Sideways” 

A weak Best Picture field cleared the way for the Academy to honor Clint Eastwood for the fourth best film he’d directed since “Unforgiven." Only Martin Scorsese’s “The Aviator” belongs in the conversation with “BlacKkKlansman," “Roma," “The Favourite” and “A Star Is Born," and while it’s a more cohesive film than “Gangs of New York," it’s the closest we’ve seen to for-hire Scorsese since “Boxcar Bertha.” (He inherited the project after years of development.) His Brooklyn-bred counterpart, Spike Lee, has handled studio assignments with a little more élan. “Inside Man” is his most purely pleasurable film, but it still bears his trademark. The same is true of the Blumhouse developed…

Winner: “BlacKkKlansman”

Winner: “Crash”

Nominees: “Brokeback Mountain," “Capote," “Good Night, and Good Luck," “Munich”

If the Academy cares how it’s perceived by the outside world, it’ll take note of the reaction to “Crash” and do everything in its power to not give “Green Book” — a road trip comedy about an erudite black man who learns how to a real black man via his racist white driver — the Oscar for Best Picture. That this inverse “Driving Miss Daisy” is favored against “BlacKkKlansman” is insane — almost as insane as “Crash” beating “Brokeback Mountain” but especially…

Winner: “Munich”

Winner: “The Departed”

Nominees: “Babel," “Letters from Iwo Jima," “Little Miss Sunshine," “The Queen”

With competition like this, it’s easy to finally give Martin Scorsese his first Oscars for Best Picture and Director. There isn’t a terrible film in this bunch, but aside from Scorsese’s nasty pulp remake of “Infernal Affairs," they’re all pretty uninspired. They certainly don’t stack up favorably against the majority of the 2018 nominees. And while “The Departed” is an enormously entertaining film, it’s not top-tier Scorsese.

Winner: “BlacKkKlansman”

Winner: “No Country for Old Men”

Nominees: “Atonement," “Juno," “Michael Clayton," “There Will Be Blood”

This was such a strong year for movies — arguably more impressive than 1999 — that even the Academy couldn’t screw up the nominations. “No Country for Old Men” and “There Will Be Blood” are two of the best films of this century, and the latter is probably P.T. Anderson’s finest movie to date. “BlacKkKlansman” and “Roma” might be in that class, but it’s too early to say. We need to let these films sit for a year before vaulting them into the all-time pantheon where “No Country” and “Blood” reside. So for now…

Winner: “No Country for Old Men”

Winner: “Slumdog Millionaire”

Nominees: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," “Frost/Nixon," “Milk," “The Reader”

This is probably best remembered as the year “The Dark Knight” failed to crack the Best Picture category, which prompted the Academy to expand the field to 10 nominees the following year in the hopes of getting more commercial films in the running (if only nominally). Of these five, only “Slumdog Millionaire” and “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” have demonstrated any staying power, but they’re lesser works from great filmmakers. Overall, it’s an unexciting group of nominees. 2018’s lows might be way lower, but its highs tower above “Slumdog” and “Button."

Winner: “BlacKkKlansman”

Winner: “The Hurt Locker”

Nominees: “Avatar," “The Blind Side," “District 9," “An Education," “Inglourious Basterds," “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire," “A Serious Man," “Up," “Up in the Air”

The Academy got its wish with its expanded field of 10 nominees, as it’s hard to imagine blockbusters like “District 9” or “Up” making a five-film shortlist. In terms of overall quality, this list accurately represents an above-average year for the movies. “Inglourious Basterds” and “Up” are considerably better than the rest of the nominees, while “Precious” is…a Lee Daniels movie. Like “Snakes on a Plane," you either want to see that or you don’t. There’s no room for the great “did 'Avatar make an indelible impact on the popular culture” debate, so let’s just acknowledge that it’s James Cameron’s weakest movie not featuring winged piranhas. In comparison to 2018, only one has “Bohemian Rhapsody” in the mix. Meanwhile, it’s pretty even at the top. This one’s close. 

Winner: “Inglourious Basterds”

Winner: “The King’s Speech”

Nominees: “127 Hours," “Black Swan," “The Fighter," “Inception," “The Kids Are All Right," “The Social Network," “Toy Story 3," “True Grit," “Winter’s Bone”

Tom Hooper’s reign of prestige-pap terror began with his punishingly formulaic movie about a speech therapist fixing the King of England’s stammer. This pointed up the flaw in the expanded Best Picture field: There were too many deserving options for people with good taste to choose from and only one movie that played to the wheelhouse of the old fogey voters who refused to watch “Brokeback Mountain” five years prior. One plus for the 2010 group: two films from women directors. That’s two more than you’ll find in the 2018 field. Debra Granik’s “Winter’s Bone” stands a little taller than its ’10 competition. How does it fare against “BlacKkKlansman?"

Winner: “Winter’s Bone”

Winner: “The Artist”

Nominees: “The Descendants," “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close," “The Help," “Hugo," “Midnight in Paris," “Moneyball," “The Tree of Life," “War Horse” 

Best to judge this year’s Best Picture field by its mostly stellar runners-up instead of the shallow, silent-film stunt that inexplicably won. Terrence Malick’s “The Tree of Life” and Alfonso Cuarón’s “Roma” are interesting companion pieces in that the filmmakers are, in their inimitable way, sifting through childhood memories to get at larger, universal truths. They are intimate epics — though Malick’s film stretches beyond his Texas upbringing to ponder both the creation and end of life on Earth. They’d make for a fascinating double feature. On the downside, “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close” and “The Help” are two of the worst Best Picture nominees in recent memory, but they’re merely “Green Book” bad.

Winner: “The Tree of Life”

Winner: “Argo”

Nominees: “Amour," “Beasts of the Southern Wild," “Django Unchained," “Les Misérables," “Life of Pi," “Lincoln”, “Silver Linings Playbook," “Zero Dark Thirty” 

Tom Hooper’s maddeningly misjudged interpretation of Claude-Michel Schönberg and Alain Boublil’s musical sensation is, for some fans of the show, an absolute atrocity: The on-set recording of the vocals largely backfired (Russell Crowe evidently cannot sing and walk at the same time), while his decision to move one of the all-time great showstoppers, “On My Own," into the first act completely undermined the song’s emotional impact. It’s a bad movie. It is also Bob Fosse’s “Cabaret” compared to “Bohemian Rhapsody." “Django Unchained” and “BlacKkKlansman” offer an interesting contrast in styles with regard to examining racism in America, but politically speaking the more interesting double feature with Spike Lee’s film would be Steven Spielberg’s “Lincoln” — which should’ve won Best Picture of 2012 but not ’18. 

Winner: “BlacKkKlansman”

Winner: “12 Years a Slave”

Nominees: “American Hustle," “Captain Phillips," “Dallas Buyers Club," “Gravity," “Her," “Nebraska," “Philomena," “The Wolf of Wall Street”

The increasingly charged political atmosphere in America was well-represented by the Academy’s 2013 Best Picture nominations. Martin Scorsese’s “The Wolf of Wall Street” and David O. Russell’s “American Hustle” offered savage critiques of capitalism run amok, Jean-Marc Vallée’s “Dallas Buyers Club” took aim at the U.S. government’s woefully inadequate response to the AIDS epidemic in the 1980s and Steve McQueen’s “12 Years a Slave” was the unvarnished, urgently needed answer to Quentin Tarantino’s grindhouse guignol, “Django Unchained." Collectively, it’s a more impressive group than the 2018 nominees. But nothing here can top the two best films of last year.

Winner: “BlacKkKlansman”

Winner: “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”

Nominees: “American Sniper," “Boyhood," “The Grand Budapest Hotel," “The Imitation Game," “Selma," “The Theory of Everything," “Whiplash”

The 2014 Best Picture field had the potential to rank up there with 2007, but the Academy had to go and snug the Oscar-friendly likes of Christopher Nolan’s “Interstellar," Dan Gilroy’s “Nightcrawler” and David Fincher’s “Gone Girl." In their place: “The Imitation Game," “The Theory of Everything” and “American Sniper." At least it nominated Wes Anderson’s “The Grand Budapest Hotel” — his third masterpiece in a row and one of the best films of the decade. “Boyhood” runs neck and neck with Cuarón’s “Roma," and nothing here reaches the depths of “Bohemian Rhapsody."

Winner: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”

Winner: “Spotlight”

Nominees: “The Big Short," “Bridge of Spies," “Brooklyn," “Mad Max: Fury Road," “The Martian," “The Revenant," "Room"

This one’s easy. 2015 has the best action film of the last 20 years, and 2018 does not. The Academy was never going to go for “Mad Max: Fury Road," but it’s intriguing to consider how Steven Spielberg’s U.S.-U.S.S.R. spy-swap drama, “Bridge of Spies," would play three years later. Though it’s a Cold War period piece, it feels more of the moment right now. Put it to a re-vote, and it might edge out “Spotlight” and whatever ends up winning this year. Alas, "Bridge of Spies" lacks a Doof Warrior.

Winner: “Mad Max: Fury Road”

Winner: “Moonlight”

Nominees: “Arrival," “Fences," “Hacksaw Ridge," “Hell or High Water," “Hidden Figures," “La La Land," “Lion," “Manchester by the Sea” 

Mel Gibson’s “Hacksaw Ridge” is a gore-hound’s dream of a World War II movie and sticks out like an exploded corpse amid its emotionally sensitive competition. Would it make the cut in 2018? That depends on how many (presumably older) Academy members would be willing to overlook/forgive Gibson’s abusive past in this post-MeToo world. Barry Jenkins’ “Moonlight” felt like the right choice in ’16, though it’s puzzling he could win Best Picture two years ago and not even snag a nomination for the equally excellent “If Beale Street Could Talk." 

Winner: “BlacKkKlansman”

Winner: “The Shape of Water”

Nominees: “Call Me by Your Name," “Darkest Hour," “Dunkirk," “Get Out," “Lady Bird," “Phantom Thread," “The Post," “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” 

This is the best group of Best Picture nominees since 2007. “The Shape of Water” was a great choice for the top prize, but the Academy could’ve opted for “Call Me by Your Name," “Dunkirk," “Get Out," “Lady Bird” or “Phantom Thread," and it would’ve felt like Oscar justice had been served. Of 2018’s nominees, only “BlacKkKlansman" and “Roma” deserved to make the cut in this field (knocking out “Darkest Hour” and “Three Billboards”). And only one film deserves to win it all.

Winner: “Phantom Thread”