Aaron Judge's toe and other Yankees early spring training storylines to watch

Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge had a challenging season in 2023, suffering a torn toe ligament when he collided with the outfield wall at Dodger Stadium. Back in December, general manager Brian Cashman described it as “a resolved issue” but Judge spoke on it today and didn’t frame it with the same sort of finality. He said it will likely require “constant maintenance” for the rest of his career, per Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News.

Judge still said that he’s feeling good, so it doesn’t appear there’s real cause for concern in the immediate future. Nonetheless, it’s something that could be worth watching going forward. Judge is turning 32 years old in April and it slated to become an everyday center fielder this year, with Juan Soto and Alex Verdugo in the corners. Judge may get the occasional day as the designated hitter, with Trent Grisham taking over in center, but it still figures to be a notable jump in terms of work.

In 2022, Judge got into 78 games as a center fielder and logged 632 2/3 innings at the position, with both of those currently standing as his career highs. Assuming he avoids the injured list this year, he should easily blow past both figures. His career marks have been passable at the position, especially considering his minimal experience there, with three Outs Above Average, -1 Defensive Runs Saved and a grade of -0.4 from Ultimate Zone Rating.

Maintaining those average-ish marks over a larger sample of playing time will be something of a challenge. He’ll also be doing so while trying to work against the natural aging curve that generally comes for players as they push toward their mid-30s and trying to keep the toe thing at bay. It’s a lot of minor things, but they could perhaps add up over time, with Judge having eight years left on his contract. Last season’s results were nothing to worry about, however. After coming off the IL in late July, Judge hit .245/.408/.557 over the remainder of the season for a wRC+ of 164.

Elsewhere in Yankee news, right-hander Clay Holmes tells Joel Sherman of the New York Post that the club has not yet approached him about an extension. Holmes, 31 next month, is slated to become a free agent at the end of this year.

Over the past two years, Holmes has established himself as the club’s primary closer, racking up 44 saves over those two campaigns. He’s thrown 126 2/3 innings in that time, allowing 2.70 earned runs per nine. He has struck out 26.1% of batters faced and given out walks at an 8.2% clip while, most impressively, keeping 70.6% of balls in play on the ground. That’s the best grounder rate in the majors among pitchers with at least 120 innings pitched over the last two years.

Keeping that kind of production around beyond the upcoming season is surely appealing, especially for a Yankee club that is known to favor ground ball specialists. But since he’s so close to the open market, the Yanks would likely have to pay something close to free-agent prices in order to get him to sign.

Perhaps the club feels they can find the next Holmes another way. As Sherman points out, Holmes didn’t have a huge track record at the time the Yankees acquired him. He had a 5.57 career ERA when the Yanks sent Hoy Park and Diego Castillo to the Pirates to get Holmes, before turning him into a lockdown closer.

But as Sherman also points out, the bullpen is on the cusp of major turnover. Each of Holmes, Jonathan Loaisiga, Tommy Kahnle and Caleb Ferguson are impending free agents. Those four are arguably the club’s top high-leverage guys, leaving a lot of uncertainty going into 2025 and beyond. Bullpens can be fungible and it’s entirely possible the picture is drastically changed by next winter, but there’s a decent chance the Yanks will need to go get someone in free agency.

The club’s payroll will likely be a topic of conversation next winter, as they will likely find themselves paying the competitive-balance tax yet again. Roster Resource calculates next year’s CBT number as $190M, even before factoring in arbitration raises for players like Grisham, Nestor Cortes or Jose Trevino. There’s also Anthony Rizzo’s $17M club option to consider, with a $6M buyout making it a net $11M decision.

Next year’s base threshold will be $241M while the Yanks will be looking to replace impending free agents like Soto and Verdugo in their outfield mix. Perhaps they would prefer to keep their powder dry for those pursuits instead of spending on their bullpen ahead of time.