Analysis: Revisiting J.P. Crawford's Extension With Mariners

Hours before first pitch on Opening Day this past April, the Mariners announced a five-year, $51 million extension with J.P. Crawford that bought out the rest of his arbitration and two free-agent years. 

At the time, I felt Seattle was taking an unnecessary risk; Crawford had not proven to be anything more than a league-average hitter over an extended period of time, and the upside seemed limited compared to other option the organization could have potentially pursued via trade or free agency. 

Crawford's best season came in 2021, when he put up a 103 wRC+ and was worth 3.3 fWAR. That's a really nice hitter to have. But he has a career 98 wRC+ in almost 2,000 at-bats, which is two points below the league-average rate. 

While Crawford has seen his strikeout rate drop each season, his quality of contact has been stabilizing near the bottom of the league. His hard-hit rate is in the bottom-sixth percentile in baseball, and his barrel rate is in the bottom-third percentile. This is a hitter that rarely hits the ball with authority and lacks the type of contact that results in extra-base hits. There is little reason to believe this will change anytime soon. 

Crawford had a scorching first month of the season this year, but since June 1, he is slashing .221/.283/.277 with a 67 wRC+, which ranks 31st among shortstops with at least 100 plate appearances and dead-last among shortstops with at least 200 plate appearances over that span. 

To paraphrase: Crawford has been the worst everyday offensive shortstop in the league over the past two months. 

Additionally, Crawford has a negative fWAR over that span too, meaning that he has been worse than a replacement-level player and his defense and baserunning have not been good enough to overcome his lack of offensive production. 

I do not value Outs Above Average as a quality fielding stat for infielders (it is my preference for outfielders), but it has Crawford as the second-worst defensive shortstop in all of baseball at -6 OAA. Defensive Runs Saved, which is a better stat for infielders, has Crawford as the 16th-best shortstop at +3 DRS. 

No matter which stat you look at, Crawford has been an average defender at best. 

Last offseason, Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto reassured Crawford he was "our shortstop" and that any rumors of Seattle courting players at the position in free agency came with the caveat they would be moved elsewhere on the diamond. 

Now, that decision looks like it may have been a mistake. And with another strong group of shortstops—headlined by Xander Bogaerts, Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson—heading towards free agency this winter, it would seem wise for Dipoto and company to take a more open-minded approach.