Cherington sees progress, has 'full expectation' Shelton returns in 2024

KANSAS CITY, Mo. -- Last August, Ben Cherington quashed any notion that Derek Shelton's job was in jeopardy, even as the team was heading toward a second straight 100-loss season. Shelton was the right guy for the job in his and the organization's eyes, and he stuck to his word of keeping the manager for the 2023 season.

In a 21-minute session with traveling media in Kauffman Stadium's visitor's dugout Monday, I asked Cherington if he had the same level of confidence in Shelton now.

"Yes. I do," Cherington answered soundly. "We talk about getting better all the time. I've got to get better. We all have to get better. We talk about that all the time. We all want to win. We all have our jobs to make that happen. And I believe he's doing everything he can do to put us in the best position to compete and win today and have a chance to do that in the future, and so is the staff. Feel very confident in the group."

Just so there is no ambiguity, then the expectation is that he will return as manager in 2024?

"Yes. Full expectation, yes."

OK. As the Pirates head toward what is shaping up to be their most crucial offseason in Cherington's time with the team, one big question is already answered. Cherington wouldn't commit to the rest of the coaching staff -- that comes with end-of-season conversations with Shelton -- but the skipper is going to stay in place.

Shelton signed a contract extension this spring, amid the team's hot 20-8 start, though those talks began in mid-March and the deal was essentially done by the first week of the season. At the time, it appeared the Pirates were in position to take a significant step in 2023, finishing the first month with the best record in the National League.

That always seemed to be unsustainable and they crashed back to earth. Entering Monday's series against the Royals, the Pirates currently sit 58-73. If they play at the same pace as their season's winning percentage, they will finish 72-90. That would be a 10-game improvement from 2022, but given that start, it may not be the leap they could have taken. It would still be progress, nonetheless.

"We’re still hopeful and optimistic that we will have improved our win total," Cherington said. "It won’t be enough. Not gonna be satisfied with that. But hopefully that will be progress."

That's the surface-level evaluation, wins and losses. It's what ultimately matters. Going a little deeper, there's more to take in:

• On the pitching side: "We see improvement in most, not all, of our pitching metrics. We’re improved relative to the last two years in most of the things we would see as important and predictive pitching-wise. The overall pitching production has been better. Again, not satisfied. Has to still get better. But we’re seeing progress there."

• On offense: "Run-scoring is something we need to improve in, clearly, going forward, to win more games. We have seen improvement, though, in swing decisions, total on-base. There is improvement on the offensive side, even though we definitely need to score more runs be the team we want to be."

• In terms of the talent in the whole organization: "Where the talent sits in the organization has changed and is a sign of progress. We know there can be, and often is, transition from the minor leagues to the major leagues. Performance doesn’t always happen right away. But the closer those players are — some of them are already here — means that we believe that we’re closer to seeing breakthroughs at the major-league level than we would have been a year ago or two years ago."

• "Beyond that, we’ve had another year to improve process across baseball operations, whether that’s the draft or player development or the tools we’re building in R&D [research and development]. Again, we’re not satisfied with any of that. But I see progress there, also."

"I believe we have achieved real progress this year, but certainly not satisfied," Cherington concluded. "We know there’s a lot more to do. Ultimately I’m accountable for that. It starts today. It starts tomorrow. We have important stuff still to do the rest of this month."

There's still plenty of season to be played, and a quality September would certainly leave a better taste in the mouth while heading into 2024. Because when looking at the whole season, it still isn't where Cherington wants it to be.

"If you’re not accounting for the whole season, 162 games, you can really have blind spots," Cherington said. "If you’re trying to measure yourself off of anything less than 162 games, it can be deceiving. We play a 162-game season. At some point the season will expose you. It’s so long and so competitive that, if you have a flaw, your flaw’s gonna be found at some point."

But this is a team that almost has to be looked at as chapters of a season to. The Pirates of April were led by veterans and the consistent pitching of a more veteran rotation. The team in the visitor's clubhouse Monday mostly consisted of rookies and players with less than two full years of service time. It's a different group to the players to evaluate.

While the Pirates are coming off of an ugly home series loss to the Cubs this weekend, since July 19, they have played roughly .500 ball (17-19) with a much younger roster that is navigating holes that injuries and a trade deadline sell off largely created. In that stretch, just about every team the Pirates have played -- with the exception of the Cardinals and Tigers -- had some level of reasonable playoff aspirations whenever they took the field that day. 

'"For the most part, I feel like we’ve competed well this month," Cherington said. "We’ve done it with a lot of young players out there. We’ve done it in the face of some challenges with pitching deployment. We’ve done it in the face of playing teams that, for the most part, are playoff teams or contending. The whole season is gonna tell us the most about who we are and how much work there is to do to be who we want to be. But inside of that, yeah, there are pockets of the season that we can learn from. August has been one of them."

There are signs of improvement, and if the young players on the roster take a step forward and the team adds some players this winter, there is reason for some level of optimism going into 2024. More progress, especially in terms of wins and losses, is going to be essential. 

"We think we have players who are still capable of making that next step," Cherington said. "Being healthier next year can help. We’ll look to add to the offense in some way, I’m sure. We’ll try to do that. On the pitching side, I’m sure we’ll be active. We want to build the deepest, best pitching staff we can. We do believe we have pitching talent here. Some of it, in some cases, getting back to health. In some cases, taking another step forward in development. In some cases, getting back on track as we talked about."