Looking for an Alex Verdugo trade match

Red Sox outfielder Alex Verdugo saw his name floated around the trade deadline as a potential trade candidate and though no trade ultimately came together, it’s worth noting that the club did field interest from clubs including both the Yankees and Astros regarding Verdugo at the deadline. With new chief baseball officer Craig Breslow now in place, the club’s focus figures to turn toward the offseason proper and Verdugo once again makes sense as a trade candidate.

After all, the club has plenty of quality outfield options. Masataka Yoshida is entrenched in left field after a strong first stateside campaign, while the likes of Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, and Ceddanne Rafaela all represent solid young outfield options that the Red Sox have previously expressed belief in. Of that quartet, only Rafaela bats right-handed, so Verdugo’s presence does little to balance out the club’s heavily left-handed outfield mix. With just one year of team control remaining before Verdugo hits free agency, the 27-year-old sticks out as a prime trade candidate for a Boston club looking to pull itself back into contention after back-to-back last place finishes in the AL East.

That’s not to say Verdugo isn’t a quality player in his own right, of course. He’s been a roughly league average bat in each of the past three seasons, slashing .278/.334/.417 with a wRC+ of 102 since the start of the 2021 campaign. He paired that average offensive with above-average defense in right field this year, as he posted a solid +1 Outs Above Average alongside a more impressive +9 Defensive Runs Saved. Only Fernando Tatis Jr. had a higher DRS in right field this year, per Fielding Bible.

The lackluster free agent market for position players further bolsters Verdugo’s potential trade candidacy. While the top of the market features Cody Bellinger, who is coming off his best season since his 2019 MVP campaign, the rest of the market pales in comparison with the likes of Teoscar Hernandez, Tommy Pham, and Jorge Soler among the group’s highlights. For teams in need of short-term outfield help, a one-year commitment to Verdugo (who MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects to make $9.2M in his final trip through arbitration) could make more sense than targeting one of those mid-tier free agents who could potentially be in search of a multi-year deal.

Teams that are unlikely to contend in 2023 are easy to eliminate from this exercise, as they wouldn’t particularly stand to benefit from a one-year deal with Verdugo. That would seem to eliminate the A’s, Nationals, Rockies, Royals, and White Sox from the list of potential teams. Teams without a significant need for a corner outfield bat are also fairly easy to eliminate. The Angels, Brewers, Cardinals, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Giants, Orioles, Rangers, Rays, Reds, Tigers, and Twins all appear to be fairly set in the outfield corners. That still leaves 12 teams that could potentially have interest in Verdugo’s services, however. Let’s take a look at how they match up…

Best Fits:

• Astros: Houston was one of the teams linked to the Red Sox at the trade deadline, and it’s easy to see why given the club’s desire to acquire a left-handed outfielder to complement Jake Meyers and Chas McCormick, given the uncertain health situation of veteran Michael Brantley at the time. It stands to reason that the club’s interest in Verdugo would continue into this offseason, with Brantley set to hit free agency and leave an opening in the club’s left field mix. Verdugo would provide quality defense in left field and complement the right-handed bats of McCormick and Meyers alongside fellow lefty Kyle Tucker, who figures to play every day in right.
• Braves: The Braves hold a $9M option on the services of Eddie Rosario for the 2024 season, and while Rosario bounced back from a brutal 2022 campaign to post league average offensive numbers this year, Verdugo would be a more consistent player with stronger defense at roughly the same financial cost. The clear upgrade Verdugo provides for the Braves over their current left field mix makes Atlanta a strong potential landing spot for Verdugo, who would join Michael Harris II and Ronald Acuna Jr. in the outfield while allowing Marcell Ozuna to remain as the club’s regular DH.
• Dodgers: As unusual as it would be for the Dodgers to trade for Verdugo just four seasons after including him in the package that brought Mookie Betts from Boston to LA, Verdugo would be an excellent fit for the Dodgers, who are set to lose lefty corner bats David Peralta and Jason Heyward to free agency this offseason. Though a healthy season from Gavin Lux would allow Betts to patrol right field on a regular basis again in 2024 after spending much of 2023 on the infield dirt, the club still figures to be in need of an outfield regular alongside Betts and James Outman. Additionally, Verdugo’s left-handed bat would complement the right-handed bat of Chris Taylor, who figures to play a utility role in both the infield and outfield next season.
• Mariners: After acquiring a one-year stopgap in right field last offseason when they landed Teoscar Hernandez in a trade with the Blue Jays, Seattle figures to once again be in need of corner outfield help this offseason. While Julio Rodriguez has locked down center field and Jarred Kelenic showed enough positive signs this year to warrant a regular role in left, the Mariners’ options beyond that duo are few and far between, with the likes of Cade Marlowe, Sam Haggerty and Taylor Trammell among their best choices. Verdugo, much like Hernandez this season, would provide the club with a quality regular who can lock down a corner spot and allow the Mariners to focus on other areas this offseason.
• Yankees: As rare as trades between the longtime rivals once were, they’ve become more common in recent years, including a deal that sent Greg Allen to New York earlier this year and a trade that moved Adam Ottavino to Boston back in 2021. While a Verdugo deal would be more significant than either of those two trades, the Yankees are in clear need of both left-handed bats to balance their lineup and could use two outfield bats to pair with Aaron Judge, assuming the club doesn’t want to count on Giancarlo Stanton as an everyday outfielder. Verdugo would fill both of those needs without adding another long-term contract to a payroll in New York that features five guaranteed contracts that extend through 2026 or longer.

Next Tier Down:

• Guardians: The Guardians are well-established as a team in need of outfield help. Though Steven Kwan figures to remain entrenched in left field and Myles Straw is under contract in center long term, Ramon Laureano is a non-tender or trade candidate in right field and Straw could easily be pushed into a fourth outfielder role if Cleveland acquired an outfielder better suited to an everyday role. Verdugo would fit the club’s lineup nicely, taking over for Laureano in right field and offer a reliable bat to an outfield group that posted the second-worst wRC+ in the majors last year, 16% worse than league average. Unfortunately, the fit is less clean than it may appear, as Verdugo would immediately become the third highest-paid player on the club’s roster behind only Jose Ramirez and Shane Bieber. Given the Guardians typically run payrolls at or near the bottom of the league, the club may prefer to look for lower-cost fliers in free agency to boost their outfield production rather than spend both financial and prospect capital to bring in Verdugo.
• Marlins: Miami will see one of its best bats in Jorge Soler depart for free agency this offseason, leaving a clear hole in the lineup. While Soler was primarily used as a DH, the addition of Verdugo in the outfield would allow the club to platoon Bryan De La Cruz and Jesus Sanchez, opening up the DH spot for an additional bat to improve a lackluster Marlins offense. That being said, given the presence of De La Cruz, Sanchez, and Avisail Garcia on the roster, Miami might be better served focusing on upgrading at shortstop, where the club currently projects to utilize Jon Berti as an everyday option.
• Padres: The outfield in San Diego is currently well-stocked, with superstars Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr. in the corners and Trent Grisham getting the lion’s share of playing time in center. With that being said, rumors have already begun to percolate this offseason that the Padres could look to move Soto in trade this offseason in hopes of cutting payroll. If the club does move on from Soto, that would create a hole in left field that Verdugo could slide into nicely. Verdugo projects to make almost $24MM less than Soto in 2024, and while his bat is not nearly as valuable as Soto’s he provides significantly more defensive value and is a clearly capable everyday player in left, which the Padres would lack without Soto on the team. Of course, if the team doesn’t move on from Soto this offseason, San Diego would no longer be a fit for Verdugo’s services.

Longer Shots:

• Blue Jays: With Kevin Kiermaier set to depart for free agency this offseason, the Blue Jays will be in need of an outfield bat to pair with George Springer and Daulton Varsho, even as the likes of Spencer Horwitz and Ernie Clement provide reasonable depth options. While Verdugo could certainly fill that role, Toronto may not want to commit to Varsho as the club’s regular center fielder, seeing as the 26-year-old has never started more than 50 games at the position in a season during his career. What’s more, after a disappointing offensive season from the club, it’s reasonable to think the Blue Jays may prefer to add a bat with a stronger offensive profile than Verdugo, who’s 112 wRC+ in 106 games with the Dodgers during the 2019 season represents his best full season offensively.
• Mets: After parting with Mark Canha and Tommy Pham at the trade deadline, the Mets have a clear opening in left field where Verdugo would represent a clear improvement over the club’s incumbent options. That being said, the rumors have indicated that the club may look to take a bit of a step back in 2024 after a difficult 2023 campaign, and the club has plenty of young players who could feasibly take a step forward with regular playing time in 2024 including Bretty Baty, Ronny Mauricio, and Mark Vientos. An opening in the outfield would allow the Mets to provide more playing time to those players, whether by directly playing them in left or by moving multi-positional veteran Jeff McNeil to left, thereby opening up time on the infield dirt.
• Phillies: Whether the Phillies look to add a first baseman or outfielder this offseason could hinge on where Bryce Harper hopes to play in 2024, but in the event Harper spends next season at first base, Verdugo could provide the club with a quality defensive outfielder who would provide more certainty than relying on the likes of Johan Rojas and Cristian Pache to play alongside Brandon Marsh and Nick Castellanos. That being said, Verdugo’s lefty bat makes for an imperfect fit in a Philadelphia lineup that already features Harper, Marsh, Kyle Schwarber, and Bryson Stott, further complicating Verdugo’s fit with the Phillies.
• Pirates: While the Pirates lack an obvious starter in the outfield alongside Bryan Reynolds and Jack Suwinski, the club figures to continue attempting to convert catcher Henry Davis to the outfield in 2024, likely filling the club’s outfield mix at least in the early part of the season. What’s more, the annual low budgets in Pittsburgh make a deal for Verdugo seem even more unlikely, as the club would presumably look to reunite with veteran outfielder and franchise legend Andrew McCutchen, who is set to hit free agency this offseason, if they were to dedicate resources to their outfield mix.