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Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

MLB best bets: NL Rookie of the Year odds

By Jared Shlensky | Last updated 4/27/23

We wrote about the American League Rookie of the Year race earlier this week, and now it's time to focus on the National League. But unlike the AL Rookie of the Year race, the NL Rookie of the Year race doesn't feature nearly as many candidates. In fact, even though we're not even a month into the season, it's somewhat fair to say it's a two-man race between James Outman and Corbin Carroll. But who's the safer pick, Outman or Carroll? That's the question you should be asking yourself.

James Outman, Los Angeles Dodgers (+200)

The Dodgers knew they needed someone to step up in their lineup after losing Trea Turner and Justin Turner in free agency, and rookie James Outman has been that guy ... so far. But can Outman sustain his early season success? We're not that sure.

The power is certainly there. Outman leads all rookies with seven home runs and 17 RBIs and is second in the league with three triples. But he's had his struggles too. He's struck out 28 times and has walked just eight times. That's concerning. Most power hitters have a pretty good feel for the strike zone, but Outman hasn't so far. And his minor league stats indicate that's not going to change. Outman struck out a ton in the minors and that hasn't changed in the majors.

Fortunately, Outman has some pretty darn good hitters hitting in front of him ... Max Muncy, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, J.D. Martinez, etc. But we're concerned that's not enough to help Outman win NL Rookie of the Year. So, not only are we telling you not to bet on Outman for NL Rookie of the Year, but we're also telling you not to bet on him with a line of 2/1. Even if that line goes up to 4/1, still don't touch Outman. Outman is currently the favorite to win NL Rookie of the Year, but we're not sure how much longer that lasts. Excluding the home runs and RBIs, Carroll was the better player in the minor leagues, and he's had a solid start. We don't see that changing, which is why we're telling you to bet on Carroll, and Carroll only for NL Rookie of the Year.

Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks (+300)

Carroll was our pick for NL Rookie of the Year before the season started, and that hasn't changed even with Outman currently favored ahead of him. Carroll has been everything as expected, and then some. But with a line of 3/1, you should jump on Carroll now before that line drops. The line on Carroll before the season was 5/1, and with Carroll slashing .311/.374/.556/.930 and 10 stolen bases, we don't see the 22-year-old slowing down anytime soon.

Plus, Carroll has four home runs and eight doubles. It's still early, but there's a chance he could have a 30-30-30 season -- 30 doubles, 30 home runs and 30 stolen bases. Having a 30-30 season (30 home runs and 30 stolen bases) is one thing but a 30-30-30 season, that's another. If Carroll does reach the milestone, he's pretty much a lock for NL Rookie of the Year. So, unless Carroll gets hurt, we don't see much stopping him. Unlike Outman, Carroll can impact the game in so many more ways, and that's makes him that much more likely to win NL Rookie of the Year.

Obviously, we've still got a long way to go, but we like what we've seen from Carroll so far. And don't forget the D-Backs have been one of baseball's most pleasant surprises. Arizona leads the NL West with a 14-12 record and even if they fall out of contention, we don't see Carroll slowing down anytime soon. Don't let Outman's hot start scare you, this is still Carroll's for the taking.

The Bet: Corbin Carroll for NL Rookie of the Year (+300)
Bet $100 to win $300.

**All odds via Caesars Sportsbook**

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