MLB best bets: Way too early NL Cy Young pick

Prior to Monday's outing, Strider had allowed just six runs over 30 innings, and as we all saw last year, he has some of the best swing and miss stuff in the game. The 2022 NL Rookie of the Year runner-up has been one of the betting favorites for the NL Cy Young since the New Year, and even though his line of +225 is far from great, we encourage you not to wait too long before wagering money on the second-year pro. You know why? Because we don't see the line getting all that much better ... unless Arizona's Zac Gallen continues to put up goose eggs on the scoreboard.

Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks (+300)

Speaking of Gallen, here we are. If the season ended today, Gallen would be our pick. The right-hander hasn't allowed a run in 28 consecutive innings and is 4-1 with a 2.15 ERA. But, we're not so sure his ERA stays below three for the rest of the season. We're well aware Gallen has finished with an ERA below three in two of the last three seasons, but he's taken advantage of a pretty soft schedule so far. 

His last start was against one of the league's worst offensive teams in the Kansas City Royals, and before that, he faced San Diego and Miami clubs that have struggled to score runs so far this season. Now it's not Gallen's fault the D-backs have faced some teams that have struggled to score so far, but we're not ready to go all-in on Gallen until we see how he does in May and June, where's he's expected to face some better offenses like the Rangers, Red Sox, Phillies, etc. 

Don't get us wrong, Gallen has great stuff and does an even better job of keeping hitters off-balance, throwing strikes and limiting the walks, but until we see Arizona face some better competition, we're going to pass on Gallen. Especially if Strider continues to pitch well. Gallen's line of 3/1 is not the value we're looking for, however, if it crawls back up to 4/1 or 5/1, we encourage you to bet on him. 

Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins (+1000)

There's no way we can make this list and not feature the reigning NL Cy Young winner in Sandy Alcantara. And even though Alcantara is 1-2 with an ERA north of five on the year, the right-hander is coming off a strong outing in his last start — 5.2 IP, 2 R, 4 H, 3 BB, 6 K — and it just happens to have been against one of the best offenses in baseball in the Braves. And guess what? We only see him getting better as the season progresses. 

Alcantara's ERA is where it is because he gave up nine runs to the Phillies in his third start of the year. But that was just a fluke and probably not going to happen. In fact, in his other four starts, Alcantara has allowed no more than three earned runs. Best part about Alcantara is you know he's capable of throwing a quality start each time he takes the hill, no matter who he's facing. He's proved that each of the last two seasons, and there's no reason why to think that's all of a sudden going to change now. 

When it comes to value, his is the best — 10/1 for any reigning Cy Young Award winner is out of this world. But like we said earlier, we took Strider way before the season started, and we're sticking with him. Plus, Gallen has outpitched Alcantara through the first month of the season, but we're not convinced that's going to last. One thing Alcantara has going for him that neither Strider nor Gallen has going for them is that he's a workhorse. Alcantara led MLB in complete games and innings last year, and don't be surprised if he does it again this season. Alcantara might not have the strikeout totals like the other two, but in an era where complete games are so rare, Alcantara is essentially good for one a month, and the voters eat that up.

The Pick: Spencer Strider for NL Cy Young (+225) Bet $100 to win $225.

**All odds via Caesars Sportsbook**