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Pictured: Adley Rutschman. Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images

Orioles vs. Athletics odds, pick, predictions for 4/28: Fade the A's offense

Originally posted on Action Network | By John Feltman | Last updated 4/28/24

The Baltimore Orioles look to claim the series against the Oakland Athletics on Sunday afternoon at Camden Yards after a dominating 7-0 win on Saturday. It’ll be Paul Blackburn on the mound for the A’s, and Albert Suarez for the Orioles.

The Athletics have been a surprisingly scrappy team to begin the season, holding their own in most contests. They pulled out a gritty extra-innings win on Friday, a game many expected them to lose. The Orioles have one of the most talented offenses in baseball despite the demotion of top prospect Jackson Holliday.

Let's preview the series finale between Baltimore and Oakland and get into my Orioles vs Athletics pick for Sunday.

Orioles vs. Athletics Odds

Sunday, April 28, 1:35 p.m. ET, ESPN+

Orioles Odds
Moneyline	Total	Run Line
-166	8.5 -110o / -110u	-1.5 +122

Athletics Odds
Moneyline	Total	Run Line
+144	8.5 -110o / -110u	+1.5 -146

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Baltimore Orioles

The O's are loaded with offensive talent, and it is a major reason why they are a dark horse to make a deep run in the American League. Against Paul Blackburn on Sunday, I expect them to have a good amount of run-scoring opportunities.

It is a small sample size, but the O's have decent numbers against Blackburn, hitting over .300 as a team. Blackburn is also due for negative regression moving forward, which could easily occur against a team like Baltimore.

Albert Suarez, who has been terrific through his first two starts, is the key for the O's on Sunday. Suarez was pitching in Korea before his return to the big leagues, which could be a major reason why he figured some things out.

Suarez was prone to getting shelled in his first big-league stint, but now it seems like he has turned the corner. I would not overthink it — I think the O's win the game comfortably even if their offense struggles to hang a crooked number.

Oakland Athletics

The A's are extremely reliant on the long ball to start the season, ranking in the top 10 in HRs. Their issue is that they are 29th in runs scored.

The offense is the least of their worries, especially with Blackburn on the bump. Blackburn, a former All-Star, is bound for negative regression moving forward. Though he enters Sunday with an impressive 2.03 ERA, he has an xFIP over 4.00. The O's are first in the big leagues in homers and third in runs scored, making it a potentially awful matchup.

Even if Blackburn thrives, he is not going to get any run support. The offense is atrocious as is, and Suarez has shown he is a talented pitcher. With the unknown of Blackburn, I can not put faith in the A's even at a juicy number.

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Orioles vs. Athletics

Betting Pick & Prediction

I am fading the A's offense and taking their team total under. Suarez does not have much data to support that he can thrive throughout the rest of the season, but the A's offense is so inept that I can safely say they will struggle to score runs again.