The Mariners had an elite shortstop in 2023 after all

While the Mariners were officially eliminated from postseason contention on the second-to-last day of the regular season, the club saw many positive developments throughout the 2023 campaign, including the emergence of Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo as capable big-league starters and the emergence of Jarred Kelenic as a quality regular in the outfield. Perhaps most noteworthy for Seattle going forward, however, is the offensive breakout of a player who’s already been with the club for several years: shortstop J.P. Crawford.

Seattle was widely viewed as a potential landing spot for one of the 2022-23 free agent class’s marquee shortstops: Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson, Carlos Correa, and Xander Bogaerts. MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald was among those who urged the Mariners to jump into the fray of the middle infield market last offseason and for understandable reasons. Not only had the club’s one-year deal for second baseman Adam Frazier proved to be a disappointment- the veteran slashed just .238/.301/.311 in 602 plate appearances with Seattle that year- but Crawford was in the midst of a difficult year as the club’s primary shortstop.

The 2022 campaign started off extremely well for Crawford, as the lefty slashed .340/.435/.546 in the first month of the season. Unfortunately, Crawford scuffled the rest of the way, slashing just .221/.317/.287 the rest of the way. Crawford’s brutal performance at the plate through most of the year can be attributed to power numbers that were nothing short of dreadful. He hit just two home runs over his final 117 games in 2022, and his BABIP over that stretch was just .254 thanks to extremely poor quality of contact. Crawford’s 2% barrel rate, 85.1 mph average exit velocity, and 29.7% hard-hit rate were all in the fifth percentile or worse among qualified hitters last season, per Statcast. Though Crawford was a solid defender at shortstop the previous season, defensive metrics indicated Crawford’s lack of production last year included his glovework, as well: among 37 qualified shortstops last year, Crawford’s -11 Outs Above Average was second lowest.

Given Crawford’s down season in 2022, calls for the Mariners to pursue a franchise shortstop were understandable. As such, comments from president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto early this past offseason that while the Mariners would pursue the coming class of shortstops, his “great preference” was to acquire a player willing to play second base were puzzling to some. Ultimately, the club worked out a swap with Milwaukee to bring in second baseman Kolten Wong as Crawford’s partner up the middle rather than sign one of the four star shortstops, none of whom ended up moving to the keystone with their new clubs this year.

The deal for Wong proved to be a blunder, as the 32-year-old slashed a dreadful .165/.241/.227 across 67 games with Seattle this year before being designated for assignment on the day of the trade deadline this year. Despite that major misstep, Crawford managed to make the club’s deference to him as the regular shortstop look perfectly reasonable as he developed from an average everyday player to the fifth most valuable shortstop in the majors this season. Crawford’s defense didn’t return to form, as his -8 OAA still placed him in the bottom five among qualified shortstops this year. The 28-year-old’s bat, on the other hand, saw some major improvements.

Perhaps most obvious among the improvements to Crawford’s offensive output this season is his walk rate. While Crawford has generally been better than average at drawing free passes in his career, he took that to another level in 2023. Crawford’s staggering 14.7% walk rate this season was the fourth-best figure among qualified major leaguers, trailing only Juan Soto, Kyle Schwarber and Shohei Ohtani while finishing just ahead of Max Muncy and Bryce Harper.

That sort of elite company in terms of plate discipline is made all the more impressive when you consider Crawford’s strikeout rate. While the 19.6% figure was actually his highest since 2019, only Soto struck out less often in 2023 among the aforementioned group of five hitters surrounding Crawford. Indeed, Crawford and Soto are two of just seven hitters in the majors this season with strikeout rates below 20% and walk rates above 12%, joined by the likes of Mookie Betts, Adley Rutschman, and Alex Bregman.

In addition to top-tier plate discipline, Crawford improved his power output significantly in 2023. While he didn’t become an elite or even average slugger at the plate, his power numbers still saw considerable improvements across the board relative to last year. His barrel rate more than doubled to 4.8%, he added more than three mph to his average exit velocity, and his hard-hit rate jumped from the fifth percentile among qualified hitters in 2022 to the 21st percentile in 2023, an impressive feat over the course of just one season.

Put together, Crawford’s improvements at the plate saw him slash an impressive .266/.380/.438 with a wRC+ of 134, a 31-point increase from his roughly league average in 2022. Crawford slugged 19 home runs, up from last season’s six, to raise his ISO from .093 last year (sixth-worst among 130 qualified regulars) to .172 (72nd among 133 qualified regulars). By measure of wRC+, Crawford went from being the 14th-best offensive shortstop in 2022 to being this year’s second-best, trailing only Corey Seager.

The Mariners would still do well to improve at the keystone headed into 2024; the keys to the position figure to be handed over to Josh Rojas (78 wRC+) and Jose Caballero (96 wRC+) without any external additions. With that being said, the club’s position up the middle has substantially improved relative to where they were this time last year, as Crawford has provided Seattle with an impact player to slot into their middle infield mix while the Mariners prepare for 2024 with a return to the postseason on their minds.