If Heat want to run it back, they have to pay massive tax bill

Running it back with the group that got the Heat to the NBA Finals this offseason might be impossible unless the team is willing to pay a massive tax bill, as Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald details. 

Guards Gabe Vincent and Max Strus, who earned minimum salaries in 2022-23, are each expected to command an eight-figure salary when they sign new contracts as unrestricted free agents this summer.

The Heat have always intended to become a taxpaying team in 2023-24, Jackson writes, but they project to be over the luxury tax threshold even before accounting for new deals for Vincent and/or Strus. 

Re-signing both players for starting salaries in the range of $10-12M per year would push the projected team salary into the neighborhood of $200M, which would result in a tax bill in excess of $120M.

According to Eric Pincus of Bleacher Report, rival executives are dubious that the Heat are willing to make that kind of tax payment. As such, it seems unlikely that both Vincent and Strus will be back unless the club can find a way to dump salary in a trade. 

Kyle Lowry, Tyler Herro, and Duncan Robinson would be the best candidates to be involved in such a deal, and Pincus notes that Herro’s four-year contract probably makes him the best option if the club is seeking additional long-term flexibility.

Here’s more on the Heat:

• Lowry restored his value to some extent with a strong playoff run, but his expiring deal (worth nearly $30M) still has limited value, writes Sean Deveney of Heavy.com. A source tells Deveney that if the Heat don’t end up using Lowry’s expiring contract in a trade, they should be comfortable bringing him back for the final year of that deal. “It’s not a bad option to have, the way he played,” the source said. “It’s not a desperate kind of thing.”
• Omer Yurtseven, who is eligible for restricted free agency, was asked on Wednesday what his priorities in free agency will be, tweets Ira Winderman of The South Florida Sun Sentinel. “I think my priority is to play,” said Yurtseven, who was limited to nine games in 2022-23 in large part due to ankle surgery in the fall. If the Heat opt not to issue a qualifying offer to Yurtseven, he’d be free to seek out the team willing to give him the biggest role.
• Heat winger Haywood Highsmith told reporters on Wednesday that he expects the team to guarantee his $1.9M salary for next season by hanging onto him beyond July 15, per Winderman (Twitter link). Highsmith added that his goal is to continue to work toward becoming a lock-down defender.
• Orlando Robinson‘s two-way contract with the Heat will expire on June 30, but the big man has committed to playing for Miami’s Summer League team, he said Wednesday (Twitter link via Winderman). The Heat have the ability to make Robinson a restricted free agent by issuing him a qualifying offer equivalent to another one-year two-way deal.