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Pictured: Bam Adebayo (13) of the Miami Heat. Via Megan Briggs/Getty Images.

NBA Play-In Tournament: Bulls vs. Heat prediction, odds, pick for Friday 4/19

Originally posted on Action Network
By Jessica Gonsalves | Last updated 4/19/24

Here's everything you need to know about Bulls vs. Heat on Friday, April 19 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today's game.

Tonight’s NBA Play-In Tournament matchup between the Chicago Bulls and the Miami Heat is a clash of contrasting styles. As they prepare to face off for the fifth time this season in Miami, the Heat will be without their superstar forward Jimmy Butler, who is out with an MCL injury.

Both teams are shorthanded, however, and this game will come down to which one can employ a “next man up” mentality to take this game and continue into the playoffs.

Chicago Bulls

Offensively, the Bulls have had a mediocre season, ranking 19th in Offensive Rating. Their shooting from the field is below average with a 22nd rank in Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%), but they excel in protecting the ball as they boast the third-best Turnover Percentage in the league.

Additionally, Chicago’s ability to draw fouls and convert at the line is notable, ranking sixth in Free Throw Rate and 10th in Free Throw Percentage. This combination of careful ball handling and effective free throw shooting could be crucial in a tight game.

Defensively, the Bulls have struggled, reflected by their 21st rank in Defensive Rating and 23rd in eFG% allowed. However, they are proficient at creating turnovers (ninth) and securing defensive rebounds (ninth), which helps mitigate some of their defensive shortcomings.

Despite these efforts, their overall defensive inefficiency might leave them vulnerable against a disciplined Heat offense.

Miami Heat

The Heat's offense has also underperformed this season, ranking just 21st in Offensive Rating and 19th in eFG%. Their Turnover Percentage and Offensive Rebounding Rate are areas of concern, ranking 12th and 26th respectively.

However, like the Bulls, the Heat are effective from the free throw line, ranking fifth in Free Throw Percentage.

On the other end, the Heat defense shines like it does every year, ranking fifth in Defensive Rating. They are particularly effective in limiting opponents' Effective Field Goal Percentage (15th) as they excel in Defensive Rebounding Rate (third) and minimizing opponents' free throw opportunities (fifth in Free Throw Rate).

This solid defensive foundation is a key component of the Heat's success and could stifle the Bulls' offensive efforts.

Bulls vs. Heat

Betting Pick & Prediction

Given the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, the best bet for this game appears to be under 206.5 points.

The Heat’s strong defense, particularly in limiting opponents' shooting efficiency and rebounding, coupled with both teams' lower offensive ratings, suggests a lower-scoring game is likely.

This is further supported by both teams' struggles in several offensive metrics, including field goal efficiency and offensive rebounding, and the loss of Butler as well.

Moreover, with the game being held in Miami and the Play-In Tournament atmosphere likely intensifying the defensive effort of both teams, a tight, defensively oriented game is expected.

Betting under 206.5 points capitalizes on these insights where both teams will likely struggle to score and should be anxious in a lose-and-go-home scenario.