Action Network Design. Pictured: Donald Trump, Joe Biden and Nikki Haley as we break down the latest presidential election odds and chances to win the 2024 U.S. Presidency.

Presidential Election Odds: Updated chances to win 2024 election

Originally posted on Action Network
By Action Network Staff | Last updated 1/26/24

Former president Donald Trump is now the odds-on favorite to win the 2024 presidential election after his wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, with no signs of his momentum slowing down.

A quick note on presidential election odds: this betting market often can act as a sort of wish fulfillment for people's political leanings. There is nothing that indicates Michelle Obama should have the third-best odds to win the 2024 presidential election, but that's the case. As you'll see below, she also has the second-best odds to win the 2024 Democratic nomination for president.

That's a reflection of how the money has come in on this particular market, as things can get kind of weird the further down the presidential election odds board you go. Ultimately, however, these odds reflect the increasing reality that this is a two-person campaign between the incumbent and the most recent former president.

With that in mind, let's get to all the latest on the 2024 presidential election odds.

Candidate	Odds	Implied Chance to Win Election
Donald Trump	-118	44.41%
Joe Biden	+150	32.82%
Michelle Obama	+1400	5.47%
Gavin Newsom	+2000	3.91%
Nikki Haley	+3000	2.65%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	+3300	2.41%
Dean Phillips	+5000	1.61%
Kamala Harris	+5000	1.61%
Michael Bloomberg	+10000	0.81%
Tim Scott	+10000	0.81%
Hillary Clinton	+15000	0.54%
Liz Cheney	+20000	0.41%
Tucker Carlson	+20000	0.41%
Joe Rogan	+25000	0.33%
Marianne Williamson	+25000	0.33%
Mitt Romney	+25000	0.33%
Sean Hannity	+25000	0.33%
Tulsi Gabbard	+25000	0.33%
Kanye West	+50000	0.16%
Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson	+50000	0.16%
Mark Cuban	+50000	0.16%

Odds via BetMGM UK. Implied probability is "fair" implied probability, without the vigorish. Sportsbooks cannot offer political betting in the United States.

Presidential Election Odds: Odds for Donald Trump in 2024

Former president Donald Trump is the current favorite to win the 2024 presidential election. Donald Trump's odds to win the 2024 presidential election are -118.

Trump's -118 odds to win the presidency equal a 44.41% chance of victory.

This is the first time Trump has been an odds-on, minus-money favorite to win the 2024 presidential election. Trump was +100 coming into Tuesday's New Hampshire primary. He bounced between -5000 and -10000 to win the New Hampshire Republican primary.

Donald Trump's 2024 presidential election odds have steadily improved over the fall and into the winter, since hovering around +200 before September's second Republican debate.

Presidential Election Odds: Odds for Joe Biden in 2024

President Joe Biden's 2024 presidential election odds are +150.

Biden's +150 odds to win reelection equal a 32.82% chance of victory.

Biden's implied chance to win the election dropped below 30% in November before climbing back up in late December. Biden's odds to win the 2024 presidential election had bounced back and forth between +210 and +250 since October before shortening to +200 after the Republican Iowa caucuses then to +150 after New Hampshire.

Presidential Election Odds: Odds to Win Republican Nomination

Candidate	Odds	Chance to Win Nomination
Donald Trump	-10000	93.69%
Nikki Haley	+1400	6.31%

Presidential Election Odds: Odds to Win Democratic Nomination

Candidate	Odds	Chance to Win Nomination
Joe Biden	-600	78.97%
Michelle Obama	+900	9.21%
Gavin Newsom	+1700	5.12%
Dean Phillips	+3300	2.71%
Kamala Harris	+3300	2.71%
Hillary Clinton	+10000	0.91%
Marianne Williamson	+25000	0.37%