2020 vision: Why next year could be crazy for starting QB-needy NFL teams

Andrew Luck’s retirement created a new AFC reality. The Colts, a good bet for the No. 3 seed or even a bye before Luck's stunning announcement, are now a 25-to-1 shot to reach Super Bowl LIV. A clearer path to a Patriots-Chiefs AFC championship rematch appears as does the prospect of the AFC South champion being back in its customary Saturday afternoon wild-card time slot.

If the Colts are not convinced Jacoby Brissett can keep them on the contender tier, they will join what could be a glut of teams seeking better QB options in 2020. Indianapolis' infrastructure looks the sturdiest in this low-ceiling group. Inserting the Colts into this equation may sound depressing for fans who just saw their team’s blueprint change, but it will make for a captivating marketplace.

After eight teams either added new Week 1 starters or drafted their heir apparent in Round 1 in 2018, last season featured as much stability as the quarterback position has in years. Not many franchises entered last season with glaring needs at QB. The Nick Foles market drying up (yet still ending with the Jaguars doling out $50 million in guarantees) illustrated this. But after another season of work samples from uninspiring veterans restricting many teams, 2020 likely will force several front offices into major decisions.

Having started a not-so-subtle tanking process, the Dolphins have made no secret they are in the market for a long-term passer. Injuries are decimating an already embattled Bengals team entering Year 9 of Andy Dalton. Tennessee QB Marcus Mariota’s 11 TD passes in 2018 matched the fewest of any quarterback who has made at least 13 starts in this decade. Despite their Bruce Arians hire and extension for 27-53 GM Jason Licht, the Bucs must be skittish about a Jameis Winston re-up.

Those are just the obvious teams. Other potential buyers exist at multiple points on the contention spectrum.

The Broncos bypassed a more appealing 2020 quarterback class to select Drew Lock at No. 42 overall. Lock, who recently suffered a sprained thumb on his throwing hand, is now an injured reserve candidate. John Elway may not see anything from Lock this year to deter him from yet another draft swing.

The Lions have a gifted passer, but this is 31-year-old Matthew Stafford’s 11th season. Detroit, a long shot to win the NFC North, has never won a playoff game in his tenure. The 49ers can release Jimmy Garoppolo with a mere $4.2 million cap hit next year, and Oakland's Derek Carr (whose career-best QBR, in his 2016 MVP third-place season, ranked 16th) has been a long-rumored trade candidate.

Unless some of these teams beat 2019 odds, they will have to consider rebooting via the draft or with another veteran. Throw in the teams that employ aging icons — the Patriots and Chargers have no successors in place, and the Saints and Steelers are far from certain on that front — and there should be a lot of teams in the quarterback mix.

The Dolphins look to be doing their best to ensure they hold a top-two draft choice next year. This will force other teams interested in Oregon's Justin Herbert and likely 2020 early-entry passers Tua Tagovailoa (Alabama) and Jake Fromm (Georgia) into asset-acquisition mode in hopes of outflanking other teams eyeing these prospects. Others could/will rise in Dwayne Haskins or Carson Wentz fashion, but these three appear the early targets. Teams not in position to select them would need to consider alternatives.

With so many teams potentially set to examine futures with other signal-callers, it will create some fascinating options. The volume of franchises coveting prospects — that, as of now, are viewed as preferable to 2019’s rookie QBs — may be extensive enough to force the Steelers and Chargers to further delay investing in true successors for Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers. Teams with quarterbacks on the higher end of the middle-class sect — like the Lions or 49ers — may be stuck, unless they want to trade for a passer in whom another team has lost faith or sign one whose team did not bother extending. (Mariota or Winston may fall into this category.) 

It will cost premium draft real estate to land Tagovailoa or Herbert, so it would not surprise to see multiple 2019 starters become consolation prizes for teams not in position to draft them. The prospect of Tom Brady legitimately testing free agency (which seems simultaneously insane and in the Patriots' wheelhouse) would transform the 2020 offseason into a historically atypical period.

If Brissett, lackluster in 15 starts replacing Luck in 2017, plays poorly again, the Colts are a logical team to chase a veteran QB. But Indianapolis GM Chris Ballard has refused to part with significant draft capital or use much of his cap-space war chest in free agency. Predicting the Colts to deplete their account for a middling answer seems foolish. 

This season will likely end with several franchises realizing their current quarterback plans cannot measure up. These sobering conclusions could lead to a wild 2020 chase, making a few teams that have not shown recent relevance central figures. That is certainly not the future the Colts want, but their recent timeline-altering news may leave them no choice.