How much would Raiders QB Derek Carr command in a trade?

Matthew Stafford to the Rams

Detroit received: QB Jared Goff, 2022 First-Round Pick, 2023 First-Round Pick, 2021 Third-Round Pick

L.A. received: QB Matt Stafford

Two years removed from the Super Bowl, the Sean McVay-Goff relationship soured, and the Rams moved on. Two first-round picks are a premium for a quarterback approaching the tail end of his career. Goff’s inflated contract played a role, numbing some of the pain for the Rams as they gave up an "all-in" style haul.

Stafford has two years left on his contract: $20M in 2021 and $23M in 2022. It’s a fairly affordable contract similar to Carr’s’ deal: $19.6M in 2021 and $19.8M in 2022.

Jimmy Garoppolo to the 49ers

New England received: 2018 Second-Round Pick

San Francisco received: QB Jimmy Garoppolo

The New England Patriots sure love to trade their backup quarterbacks. A single second-round pick for Jimmy Garoppolo seemed like a fair deal at the time. After the San Francisco 49ers were able to parlay that into Super Bowl LIV, it seems even more so. 

The Pats were in a little bit of a bind, with Tom Brady still insisting on being the man in Foxborough. They were outleveraged from the start. Kyle Shanahan came knocking for a young signal-caller to mold in his system. 

Ultimately, Garoppolo wound up a high-floor/low-ceiling quarterback. Given Carr’s performance in Jon Gruden’s system, a second-round pick is almost unthinkable for a top-10 NFL starter. Then again, it’s not about who is selling but who is buying that determines fair value.

Minkah Fitzpatrick to the Steelers

Miami received: 2020 First-Round Pick, 2020 Fifth-Round Pick, 2021 Sixth-Round Pick

Pittsburgh received: DB Minkah Fitzpatrick, 2020 Fourth-Round Pick, 2021 Seventh-Round Pick

Why examine a defensive back deal? It’s important to keep in context the average deal for a great young player who doesn’t play QB. We remember the Khalil Mack trade. That may not have been the norm, especially for a single defensive player.

Fitzpatrick is a stud on a rookie deal, and he's made waves in Pittsburgh. He only cost one premium pick and for good reason. Pittsburgh was bounced in the first round of the 2020 playoffs, largely in part to a collapse at quarterback play. If you’re going to pull the trigger on a high-cost trade, it needs to be worth it.

Patrick Mahomes to Chiefs

Kansas City received: 2017 10th Overall Pick (QB Patrick Mahomes)

Buffalo received: 2017 First-Round Pick (27th Overall), 2018 First Round-Pick, 2017 Third-Round Pick

Given the results of the AFC title game last week, think the Buffalo Bills would have this one back?

In 2017, the Kansas City Chiefs jumped 17 spots in the draft to select Patrick Mahomes with the tenth selection. The Bills featured Tyrod Taylor at quarterback, who was decent during his tenure in Buffalo. 

The Bills even got cornerback Tre’Davious White with the 27th pick they received. They were still left without a game-changer at quarterback though. Buffalo then traded up in 2018 to select Josh Allen and set the stage for its ascent. For all the gains the Bills made from the deal, they were bested in resounding fashion by the Chiefs.

Trading Derek Carr

Proven NFL players command a higher price than draft talent. Proven NFL quarterbacks raise that price exponentially. 

If the Raiders were to move on from Carr in 2021, there would be a robust market for teams who are a quarterback away from contention. His contract is very affordable but will soon need an extension. Even an extension forhim should run under $30 million a year in an inflated free-agent market.

Here’s a list of teams that could take a big leap with Carr: Washington, Cleveland, San Francisco, Indianapolis, Denver and Pittsburgh.

The Stafford deal is the closest to a Carr deal as we could see if the Raiders wanted to deal him. Detroit received two firsts and a former first overall pick for the 33-year old QB on a comparable contract. It takes a team with Super Bowl aspirations to make a deal like that. Stafford is better than Carr, but he is nearly four years older. As stated before, it’s all about the price a buyer is willing to spend. 

With Carr not yet in his 30s, a package including a first-round pick and a second-round pick for a quarterback-needy team would make sense. A trade for two firsts wouldn’t shock anyone, seeing as this is the highest-impact position in sports. This of course would assume that the Raiders had a new plan at the position. Receiving a treasure trove of picks might help put together the type of package that could bring Deshaun Watson to the Silver and Black.