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NFL Week 14: Three player props we absolutely love
NFL Sunday will be here before you know it, but these lines don't figure to remain like so once more of the market starts to dig in. Join the ride on our three favorite looks for Sunday's Week 14 slate.
Drake London over 46.5 receiving yards (-114 FanDuel)
I'm certainly not going to start targeting Tampa Bay now with passing props. Drake London is WR1 on Atlanta and it really isn't close. That's the exact role we want to see, as the Buccaneers allow the seventh-most receptions to WRs, the third-most 20+ yard passes per game, and the sixth-most pass yards per attempt.
London caught six balls for 54 yards earlier this season against the Bucs, and last season in Atlanta, London went 6-120 vs. Tampa Bay.
At home this year, London is over in four straight, averaging 90.25 yards in those four games.
London's reception line is heavily juiced to the over at 3.5. If we take that to mean that the Falcons WR is set for 4+ catches, then that's the nail in the coffin on this play. He is over this number in 11 straight games when catching 4+ passes, averaging 72.6 across his young career in 16 total such games.
I love this play, and he's a ladder candidate this Sunday.
Alvin Kamara & Chuba Hubbard 50+ rushing yards (+148 FanDuel)
I'll opt for a SGP in this Carolina-New Orleans game, as both sides came up as run defenses worth targeting. The Panthers are allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game to RBs, and DVOA grades them out as the worst run defense in football.
The Saints are letting up the 11th-most yards per game to RBs, the sixth-highest yards per rush, and DVOA has their unit ranked 25th in the NFL.
Say hello to each side's top running backs. Kamara has 50+ rushing yards in seven of nine games this season and has averaged 84 yards per game over his past two against the Panthers.
Hubbard has taken control of lead back duties in Carolina, taking 24 carries last week in the first game since Frank Reich was fired, the fifth time in the last seven games in which Hubbard has seen 14+ rushes.
Hubbard has seen that type of volume 13 times in his career, averaging 67 yards per game in such instances, including 55 and 69 yards in two prior meetings with New Orleans.
Tyler Conklin over 26.5 receiving yards (-115 DraftKings)
I am aware that the weather in East Rutherford is looking less than ideal on Sunday, with strong winds and rain. I'm willing to bet Conklin regardless given some of his shorter routes relative to WRs, but I do understand the hesitation if you'd like to pass on this prop.
Ah yes, just as you guessed, we're wrapping up with New York Jets tight end Tyler Conklin.
Ok, I know this might be a shocking look, but Conklin came up all week, and now that Zach Wilson is back at QB, I'm actually more confident in trusting the trends from this Jets offense.
Conklin and the Jets are facing a Houston secondary that has started leaking big plays in the passing game, and they've really struggled against tight ends, allowing the most receptions per game to the position.
I consider Conklin's receptions line at 2.5, he's gone over it in nine of his last 11 games, but it's priced around -140. Rather than go there, I prefer the yards.
In the nine games that Conklin has recorded three or more receptions, he's averaging 47.7 yards per game this season, and is over this line in 24 of his last 30 games.
Conklin has had some massive games with Zach Wilson this year. In the seven games this year where Conklin caught 3+ passes with Wilson at the helm, he's gone for 50+ yards five times and 66+ yards in three of his last four.
This line is incredibly low, likely due to the forecast in New Jersey this weekend. There's enough here that stacks up for a solid Conklin game regardless, so here's to the tight end catching some short passes in the wind and making defenders miss.
Follow Griffin Carroll at griffybets.substack.com for data, trends and targets for every NFL game, plus all the off-season news you can use.
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