A salary cap deep dive into the Chicago Blackhawks

Kane and Toews have been on identical contracts for 13 straight years now but that will come to an end after this season.  Kane remains one of the top offensive threats in the NHL and while it’s fair to expect that he’s going to slow down, he still should be an impact player for a few more years.  His next deal probably won’t be $10.5M but something around the $9M mark should be achievable on a four-year deal or longer.  Toews, on the other hand, has only had one high-end offensive season in recent years.  While he remains a strong player at the faceoff dot and can kill penalties, his days of being a topliner are over.  Accordingly, his market value might be closer to half of his current price tag.

Domi and Athanasiou both came on identical deals this summer but at a much lower cost.  They’re both looking for bounce-back seasons to build back some value.  However, Athanasiou has had some good years lately and still didn’t have a particularly robust market in his previous trips through unrestricted free agency.  Unless he gets closer to the 50-point mark this season, it’s hard to see his price tag going higher.  As a center, Domi has a bit more potential when it comes to a bigger contract.  He has had some down years since his 72-point campaign in 2018-19 but in a bigger role with Chicago, he at least has an opportunity to try to re-establish himself as a second liner which could give him a chance at a small raise.

Khaira has dealt with some injury issues the last couple of years and has been more of a fourth liner in that time.  Accordingly, his next contract will come in close to this one.  As for Kurashev, he’s on his prove-it deal, one that saw him take less than his qualifying offer to get a one-way guarantee.  He has shown some flashes of promise early in his career and if he’s able to even get to 25-30 points this season, he’ll do enough to warrant a raise past the $1M mark, especially with arbitration eligibility.

The younger Jones is still trying to get himself established as a full-time NHL player and has been on the third line when he has played for most of his career.  He’ll be arbitration-eligible again this summer with a $1.35M qualifying offer and a small raise could come his way if he’s able to stay healthy and on the third pairing.  Johnson signed as a free agent this summer after being a depth player in Colorado.  He could legitimately sign a similar type of contract in July around this price tag as it’s unlikely he’ll garner a multi-year deal now as he’ll turn 36 in January.  Tinordi was somewhat surprisingly claimed off waivers after spending most of last season in the minors.  It’s hard to see him getting much of a raise this summer but if he stays up for the full year with Chicago, another one-way deal could be doable.

The last two years have been tough for Stalock who was unable to play for most of that time due to myocarditis and he struggled in limited AHL action last season which limited his market this past summer.  At his age (35), he’s probably going year-to-year moving forward but if he stays healthy and has a decent season, he should command more interest in July which would likely push his price tag past the $1MM mark.

Signed Through 2023-24

F Colin Blackwell ($1.2M, UFA)
F Mackenzie Entwistle ($800K, RFA)
F Jason Dickinson ($2.65M, UFA)
F Tyler Johnson ($5M, UFA)
F Boris Katchouk ($758K, RFA)
F Sam Lafferty ($1.15M, UFA)
G Petr Mrazek ($3.8M, UFA)
F Taylor Raddysh ($758K, RFA)

Johnson was a cap dump by Tampa Bay and hasn’t produced at a top-six level with consistency for a few seasons now.  On top of that, he is more of a winger than a center now which doesn’t help his value.  He’ll be in his age-34 season on his next contract and it’s one that should be 50% lower at a minimum as things stand.  Dickinson was a cap dump by Vancouver recently and isn’t too far removed from showing some third-line potential.  If he can play at that level in Chicago, he could have a chance at a similar contract two years from now.  But if he plays at the same level as last season with the Blackhawks, he’ll be closer to the level of a PTO candidate.

Blackwell came over in free agency after being a late bloomer, only securing a regular NHL roster spot at 27.  He has shown some offensive upside in that stretch and a contract like this for a fourth liner that could have a little upside is certainly reasonable.  A similar showing to his last two seasons could give him a small bump in pay in 2024.  Lafferty hasn’t produced much in his career but showed that he was capable of logging third-line ice time with Chicago last season.  Maintaining that role would help his market value two years from now but he’ll need to produce more than single-digit goals to have a chance of really pushing his AAV up.

Entwistle is in a similar situation as Lafferty, just with a shorter track record.  He provides Chicago with some physicality, but the offense will need to come around if he wants a chance at a seven-figure contract.  Raddysh didn’t produce much with Tampa Bay last season but impressed down the stretch with the Blackhawks, producing at close to a top-six level.  Similar production coupled with arbitration rights could push him past the $2.5M mark two years from now.  Katchouk also came over from Tampa Bay and once he’s able to return, his priority will be simply securing a spot in the lineup on a regular basis which doesn’t bode well for the chances of a sizable increase in 2024.

Mrazek was a cap dump from Toronto back at the draft in a move that saw Chicago elevate a second-round pick into a first-rounder.  He has shown flashes of playing at a number one level in the past but has struggled with consistency and staying healthy.  He’ll need to provide at least some stability if he wants to land a contract around this price tag two years from now; at this point, a dip seems quite likely.

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Signed Through 2024-25

D Jake McCabe ($4M, UFA)

There were some ups and downs for McCabe in his first season with Chicago, but he had a career year offensively, provided plenty of hits and blocks, and logged over 20 minutes a night for the second time.  You can quibble about whether or not he should be a top-four defender on a lot of teams, but he is with the Blackhawks and that’s not a bad price for someone in that role.

Signed Through 2025-26 Or Longer

D Seth Jones ($9.5M through 2029-30)
D Connor Murphy ($4.4M through 2025-26)

Jones got off to a tough start last year but rebounded pretty well all things considered.  He is a legitimate number one defenseman in terms of usage and production and a $9.5M AAV for someone in that role isn’t exceptionally high.  It’s not a value contract but it isn’t a serious overpayment either.  Now, when you factor in that he’s signed for seven more years and the high price they paid to get him, that certainly doesn’t look great but for this very moment (which is what these assessments are), they’re getting a decent return on the contract.  Murphy is similar to McCabe in that he doesn’t provide a lot of offense and is more of a typical shutdown defender that plays around 20 minutes a night.  This is a bit of an above-market contract but he’s an important part of their leadership group and they can certainly afford to carry this deal.

Buyouts

F Henrik Borgstrom ($83K in 2023-23, $183K in 2023-24)
F Brett Connolly ($1.168M through 2023-24)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Salary Cap Recapture

D Duncan Keith ($5.538M in 2022-23, $1.938M in 2023-24)

Best Value: Raddysh
Worst Value: Johnson

Looking Ahead

Even after taking on some unwanted contracts, Chicago is in a position to continue to do so which might help them when they eventually look to move Kane and Toews with retention leading up to the trade deadline.  They’re well-positioned to add some extra assets on that front if they need to facilitate a move which is ideal for a cupboard that isn’t as stocked as they’d like it to be.

From a long-term perspective, GM Kyle Davidson has close to a blank canvas to work with.  No forward is signed for more than two years and only two defensemen are signed for four or more.  They’re not going to be dealing with any cap trouble for a long time so it wouldn’t be surprising to see recent history repeat itself and the team takes on some unwanted contracts in exchange for future assets.  It’s a long rebuild for Chicago and they’re just getting started.