Is the Buffalo Sabres rebuild over?

Former NHL analyst Cam Charron joined Daily Faceoff Live hosts Frank Seravalli and Tyler Yaremchuk for another edition of the Number Crunch to talk about the Dylan Cozens extension in Buffalo and what it means for the team moving forward. Are they still in a rebuild mode or is it playoff time? Cam also talks about the Islanders’ addition of Bo Horvat, and how close the Eastern Conference playoff picture is.

Tyler Yaremchuk: Please welcome in Cam Charron for another edition of the Number Crunch brought to you by Montana’s Bar & Grill. Cam, we spent a good chunk of yesterday’s show talking about the Buffalo Sabres and Dylan Cozens’s extension. It seems so much is going right in Buffalo this season, are you ready to declare the rebuild is over? 

Cam Charron: Oh man, I was all ready to say yes but then I just caught myself. I don’t know entirely but it’s looking a lot closer than it’s ever been. This is a team that has really turned into quite an appointment-viewing team, one that I am really going to pay more attention to in the second half of the season. Not only are they doing well but they’re very entertaining and in the very thick of a playoff race so they should really have some entertaining games ahead. They also have probably the best line in hockey right now with Tage Thompson – Jeff Skinner – Alex Tuch rolling together. Two of those three are second and third in the NHL in points. Here’s the problem though, the scoring is really only that line. I’ve graphed different levels; first line, second line, third line, fourth line and call-ups based on time on ice. So outside of those three, the only Sabres player who’s above an average second-line level is Dylan Cozens.

So, this is a really interesting situation for the Sabres to be in. It’s funny, we just talked about Vladimir Tarasenko and compared his return to Taylor Hall. The Sabres are a team that have a first round pick, have three second-round picks for this upcoming draft. You’d think this is where the strategy would be to sit back and build but maybe now is the time to cash in and acquire some pieces that can help you while this core enters its prime. You have guys locked up long-term in Thompson and Cozens. They’ve got Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power on the backend, it’s a really strong defensive group too. It’s going to be interesting, they also have some very strong prospects outside of the NHL currently, we always liked players that were playing with the Toronto Marlies as opposed to overseas; you have a better handle on their development and ice time. So the fact that Jiri Kulich and Isak Rosen are playing significant minutes for Rochester, it’s that they have a little better handle on where these guys are and can slot them better in the lineup over the next couple of years. They do have these extra pieces going forward, but what do they have right now, do they have that secondary scoring and are they in that situation where they kind of look at how it’s been 12 years since the playoffs, maybe we should add a forward and add a Tarasenko and go on a run. It seems like an interesting situation and I think the rebuild might not be over but this is certainly the core they’ve identified as the next great Sabres team and I think this is a group that will have success down the road even if it’s not right there yet. 

Frank Seravalli: Yeah, I think it’s interesting you said down the road I think we’re all asking how close is that. Totally unprompted, I was on the phone yesterday with an NHL general manager who said two years from now the Sabres will be ‘the beast of the east’. So that’s kind of their prediction. So, I personally don’t think they’re going to be a huge player at the deadline because their mantra has been to be really patient and specifically not box out guys.  You see guys like Jack Quinn continue to take a step, and while he didn’t look good on your chart Victor Olofsson has had himself a pretty good season and his numbers have been pretty good. That said, they’re in the thick of the playoff race and have Washington and Pittsburgh right in their sights and then the New York Islanders are right in the mix with them. So, of those four teams that are in the East that are battling for those final spots, if you were to give an edge to two of them at this exact moment in time who would they be?

Cam Charron: I would probably give the edge to the Capitals and the Islanders. I think the Islanders are such a strong five-on-five team and not only because of their Corsi for percentage and expected goals but their goaltending is so good. I think they play well defensively and they really can impact the shots against, so I think their pure five-on-five goal differential is a key indicator of how good this team really is. You know they make the big addition of Bo Horvat and that will really help out this powerplay. He doesn’t get a lot of touches but he’s a natural player for Matt Barzal to set up, their powerplay has really held them back. The Capitals you know have just kind of been hanging around, they’ve been hit with tons of injuries this year. They’ve been playing pretty well lately, better than Pittsburgh. I think Pittsburgh hasn’t really found it, they haven’t shown that extra gear and they’ve played a lot more bad games than good games from what I watched this year. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Islanders chase down the Penguins, the vibes are good in Long Island and they have that game against the Canucks here and if Horvat has a big game against his former team you’re looking at a dressing room that has a general manager who has shown confidence in them and that can matter. We will see what happens with the Islanders and It’s actually quite a bit closer If you sort these standings by points percentage, Buffalo is very close to Washington. I just think the Capitals have played so well lately it’s hard to count them out.