Stars Summer Review Part I: Welcome Aboard Matt Duchene

Greetings Full Press Hockey readers and more specifically, fans of the Dallas Stars who visit this site. I will be covering the club and their AHL affiliate, the Texas Stars, for the 2023 – 2024 campaign. I’m excited to join the Full Press team and to get started!

Full disclosure, I’ve always utilized advanced, or “fancy” stats in my blogs. Ask any team’s front office and assuming they tell the truth, they would admit that they employ the use of advanced metrics to some degree in their own player evaluations. I’ve never relied exclusively on those stats and still utilize the old-fashioned “eye test,” too. Expect to see a blend of both.

For my initial post, or rather in this case, posts, it makes sense to review the Stars offseason moves and how those transactions position the team to contend in ’23 – ’24. Parts one and two will cover the incoming group of players and what the club can expect from them. For part three we’ll discuss the subtractions and how the team can offset those deductions. In the final episode of the quadrilogy (I made that word up by the way), we’ll weigh the gains against the losses and determine if the Stars roster is better today than the one that last skated together in game six of the WCF. Well, onward and upward!

Welcome to the team

Matt Duchene C/RW (UFA – 1 year, $3MM AAV);

Craig Smith RW (UFA – 1 year, $1M AAV);

Sam Steel C (UFA – 1 year, $850K AAV);

Gavin Bayreuther D (UFA – 1 year, $775K AAV);

Derrick Pouliot D (1 year, $775K);

Jordie Benn D (UFA – PTO)

Matt Duchene

Despite entering the summer with little available cap space, the Stars were able to add several veteran players expected to contribute this upcoming season. In fact, they benefitted from the league-wide scarcity of spending money, as well as Nashville Predators first-year GM Barry Trotz’s desire to reshape his club’s culture, by scooping up one of the top names available on the market in Matt Duchene. The skilled forward was bought out of the final three seasons of his seven-year, $56MM pact with Nashville, whereupon he inked a one-year, $3MM deal with Dallas.

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Duchene had a bit of a down year statistically (22 goals and 56 points) relative to both his career averages (26 and 62) and especially his 2021 – 2022 campaign (43 and 86) yet still led the Preds in goals while placing second behind Roman Josi in assists and points. To be fair, the Dallas Stars weren’t exactly starved for more goal scoring, ranking 7^th in the NHL averaging 3.41 goals per game and placing five skaters among the top 48 in points scored during the 2022 – 2023 session. But in a league that emphasizes skill and scoring balance, adding a productive forward capable of netting 55 points in a “down” year for $3MM is simply good business and could pay off handsomely for Dallas.

In terms of projection models, Evolving Hockey pegs Duchene to be worth 6.1 Goals Above Replacement (GAR), good for 97^th (tied with three others) among NHL forwards. If the forecasts are to be believed, the 32-year-old Duchene still projects to be a top-six offensive player, even bottom-end top-line. But what the forecasts can only guess is the quality of ice time and the skaters the former 3^rd overall choice in the 2009 draft will play with this season.

Head coach Peter DeBoer relied heavily on the forward trio of Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz and Joe Pavelski last season. That line saw 768:46 of even-strength ice time together, more than twice as much as the next most frequently deployed threesome. It stands to reason that the unit will stick together in 2023 – 2024 comprising the squad’s top line.

It’s conceivable Duchene could skate with Jamie Benn, coming off a bounce-back season which saw the 34-year-old record his first 30-goal, 70+ point campaign in five years. Duchene could center that line, or he could play RW with Tyler Seguin or even sophomore forward Wyatt Johnston, who tallied 24 goals as a 19-year-old rookie, at the pivot.

That would allow the Stars to utilize some combination of Mason Marchment (12 goals, 31 points), Evgenii Dadonov (33 points) and either Seguin, a nine-time 50-point producer, or the aforementioned Johnston on a potentially potent 3rd line. Fellow free agent acquisition Craig Smith could also find his way into the mix. Any way you look at it, DeBoer will have plenty of options to man the team’s middle-six forward group.

While a skilled offensive player, Duchene’s value on the other side of the ice has always been middling at best. During the 2022 – 2023 campaign, he posted an xDef of -3.9 and for his career, the veteran of 976 games is -15. But the Stars, who finished third overall in GAA, can likely live with Duchene’s defensive deficiencies, assuming his contributions offensively approach career norms.

Given the Stars cap space limitations, getting Matt Duchene for $3MM on a short-term deal is a big win and one of the most prudent signings this summer. But wins in the summer mean little. What matters is winning in the postseason. Nobody wins if the Stars fall short of hoisting the Stanley Cup next spring.