Trading William Nylander would be a mistake for the Maple Leafs

It’s been quite the emotional rollercoaster in Leafland these past few weeks.

Just under a month ago, the team and the city were riding a high they hadn’t felt in almost 20 years with a playoff series victory. The core finally got the monkey off their back, and the uncertainty around the players and the staff’s futures seemed at ease with the “they need to win a round” narrative finally done.

And then it all fell apart just as quickly as an overtime goal. The Leafs flamed out in five games against a Florida Panthers team many thought they should have beaten, the star players were no-shows yet again when it mattered (or the $11 million ones at least), and after a breakdown in negotiations, General Manager Kyle Dubas is out the door and many are wondering what is going to happen to this team going forward.

The general consensus is that one of the Core Four needs to go, either to free up their salary to improve their depth or just to change up the group. So far, Leafs president Brendan Shanahan has indicated that won’t be the case, but it seems to be the popular opinion among critics. As usual, William Nylander is the common choice to make this work, but that could be a bigger mistake than the Leafs may realize.

Now, don’t get me wrong, I understand why it makes sense to choose him out of the Core Four. You aren’t moving Auston Matthews unless he says he isn’t re-signing next season. John Tavares’ contract probably can’t be moved, he has a no-move clause anyway, and he’s the captain of the team. Mitch Marner is a possibility, but Nylander is entering the final year of his contract, and will likely want more money which could cause cap constraints in a season when they also need to sign Matthews, and if Nylander’s not coming back, it makes sense to move on from him and get appropriate value when you can before he walks for nothing.

But, if dealing any of the Core Four is on the table, and the other three will likely stick around long-term in that situation, Nylander shouldn’t be the fall guy.

For starters, the biggest reason that many feel this kind of deal needs to happen in the first place is because they always seem to be no-shows at crunch time in the playoffs. So if that’s the reason, why move on from the one out of those four that actually has shown up consistently in the postseason?

Core Four production in past three postseasons

Player	Playoff Games Played (Games 4-7 Played)	Playoff Points	Points per 60	Playoff Points in Games 4-7
Auston Matthews	25 (13)	25	2.61	9
Mitch Marner	25 (13)	26	2.6	8
John Tavares	19 (9)	14	2.48	11
William Nylander	25 (13)	25	3.25	16

In terms of playoff scoring in the past few seasons where the Leafs have been a true powerhouse, Nylander is right up there with Matthews and Marner in terms of point production, and the further you dive into the context of those points, the better it looks for him. The big thing is that in Games 4-7, when the series gets a bit tighter in terms of both the pressure on the teams and the play on the ice, Matthews and Marner become the worst producers of the Core Four, while Nylander sees a bit of improvement.

That’s not to say that Nylander is “clutch,” but if anything it shows that he’s consistent no matter what point of the series he’s in. An aspect of Nylander that always goes under the radar is that he doesn’t let the pressure get to him because he doesn’t care what people have to say about him. That attitude can turn some people away from him and make it seem like he doesn’t care at all, but if you take it at face value, it basically means he isn’t bothered by what people in hockey’s hottest market say about him, especially the negative stuff.

I’m not going to do psychoanalysis on a man I’ve never met, but a majority of the interactions he’s had with the media showcase that he isn’t overly bothered by the negativity that the media and the fans have towards him, and it shows on the ice. It may lead to some sloppy plays from time to time, but when the stakes are high, you know he’ll play the same game he always does, something you can’t necessarily say about Matthews and Marner all the time.

Another important thing to note in the chart above is their points per 60 minutes, as that’s also where Nylander holds a significant advantage because he doesn’t get nearly as much ice time as the other three. Despite producing just as consistently as the other three, and producing even more later in the series than them, Nylander usually gets the short end of the stick for ice time. If Sheldon Keefe wants to load up the top line, it usually is Matthews, Marner, and Tavares. If Keefe wants to change up the forwards on the power play, Nylander is usually the odd one out.

Along with his playoff production, Nylander also brings a more diverse offensive pallet to the table with his play that adds a bit of unpredictability for their opponents, particularly in comparison to his fellow winger in Marner. Part of what makes it so easy to shut down the Maple Leafs' top line in the postseason is that when Matthews and Marner are on the ice, you know where the puck is going if it’s on Marner’s stick. He’s certainly improved his shot over the last couple of seasons to make opponents slightly more unsure, but there’s still some predictability that it’s going to end up on Matthews’ stick. When you shut down Matthews, you shut down the whole line.

With Nylander, he makes opponents think slightly more because while he has the passing ability to set up a player for a prime opportunity, which is why he’s had three seasons with at least 40 assists, he also has a shot that can be a threat, especially if you leave him space, which is why he has three 30-goal campaigns and scored 40 in 2022-23. He’s even showcased the ability to be a power forward if needed, as seen with his 31-goal season in 68 games in 2019-20 where a majority of those came in the net-front area.

He’s also the smoothest skater of the four, especially when he utilizes it in transition. It’s obviously useful when setting up plays in the offensive zone, but he also uses it to move the puck up the ice and into the zone with possession, something you don’t see quite as often with the other three players.

Sure, Matthews, Marner, and Tavares will find ways to score with their skill sets, but having more options on the table allows you more creative ways to score, and Nylander certainly does that.

Finally, as is the case with a lot of trades involving a team dealing a superstar, the teams moving the star are rarely going to win that trade. People keep citing the Matthew Tkachuk trade last season, but that has such unique circumstances that you aren’t going to find a player like that on the market all that often. Our own Matt Larkin dove a bit more into that topic already, so I won’t add too much more into the reasons why, but it’s still worth mentioning here.

The Leafs will certainly feel pressured to move on from one of the Core Four after the lack of playoff success, especially with a new general manager looking to come in and make their stamp on the team early on. But it’s also important to remember teams like the Washington Capitals and Tampa Bay Lightning that just had to be patient and wait for their chance and take it. That said, even the Caps weren’t entirely patient and did move on from a European scoring winger much maligned for his lack of effort in Alex Semin.

Unless Nylander forces their hand and makes it clear he has no intentions of re-signing at the end of the season, I see no logical reason to deal him. None of the Leafs’ core players should be dealt right now, especially considering that they might have up to $20 million in cap space to improve their forward depth without even having to move them, but Nylander shouldn’t be the one that has to go if one is moved. He’s obviously not the most untouchable player on this team, but he is the only one that consistently shows up in the playoffs, especially deeper into the series, and brings a unique skill set to their offense that would be missed more than they may think.

Ironically, his apparent lack of effort and caring, which have made him such a maligned player and will likely be why he’s moved, is the one thing that works to his advantage over the other Core Four members in the highly scrutinized—and often toxic—environment of Toronto.