Dennis Schneidler-USA TODAY Sports

Two SOG targets to ladder tonight in the NHL

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated 11/8/23

Our NHL totals didn't quite pan out last night, so we turn back to the player props market with a pair of terrific looking spots for shots on goal. Not only do these players look great, but the prices offer us some incredible value.

1u: Claude Giroux over 2.5 SOG (-104 FanDuel)

.5u: Giroux 4+ shots (+275 FD)

Shots on both sides look good here. Toronto is allowing 31 shots per game at home, which is a green-light number for me, especially when you see Ottawa averaging nearly 35 of its own in the team's three road games.

Claude Giroux is over 2.5 shots in five of his last nine, but there's a few things in particular that are drawing me here. First, in three road games, Giroux has 12 SOG on 21 attempts. Beautiful. Dating back to last season, Giroux has been far steadier on the road, going over 2.5 in 55% of games compared to just 38% at home.

Then there's his history against Toronto. Giroux has 4+ SOG in five of his last six vs. Toronto and 3+ in nine of his last 11, landing on three only once during that stretch.

We bring it home with a look at how wings have fared against the Leafs lately. Nikita Kucherov (5), Alex Tuch (5), Adrian Kempe (4), Nick Paul (4), Jeff Skinner (3), Brad Marchand (5), Jake DeBrusk (4) and Kevin Fiala (4) all had big games. That's all in just the last 10 days!

1u: Matthew Tkachuk over 3.5 SOG (-110 Fanatics)

.5u: Tkachuk 5+ shots (+175 FD)

I have absolutely no idea why the price is set here, and candidly, I don't care. This volume has to be backed.

You see, Matthew Tkachuk has 35 attempts and 20 shots on goal in his last three games. In case you missed that, Matthew Tkachuk has 35 attempts and 20 shots on goal in his last three games.

So what gives? Why is the price here? My guess is that it's because the Capitals are allowing the 11th-fewest shots per game. Well, they've let up 31+ at home, and Florida is averaging nearly 35 shots per game on the road. For good measure, the Panthers are averaging 41.75 shots per game over their past four regular-season meetings with Washington.

So, uh, I have to bet Tkachuk here. He had seven SOG last game in Washington, and he's averaging 5.2 SOG/game on the road this season.

Nobody digs in the corners for picks on pucks like YB's Griffin Carroll. Follow him at griffybets.substack.com for NHL data, trends and targets.

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